Skip to Mylute

So a shorter entry today, lads. I've run this race around 100 times in my head over the last few days, and there are two variables that do not change for me. The first being that Rosie Napravnik hits the board this time. She'll be the closer that keeps closing; passing tiring horses while Orb gallops out a few lengths in front of her. The cameras will catch Tom Amoss giving her a genuine nod of approval while she pats her colt hard on the shoulder. The connections will be happy, and several exotic wagers will be completed... and that will be the day for Mylute on Saturday.

Call it burying the lead, but I tend to focus on Rosie and Mylute's finish when I'm picturing things, instead of Orb's. In the snapshot in my mind, they are in the middle of the frame and Orb has already crossed the line, well off to the right. I don't see anything getting in his way here. It's his race to lose, but he won't lose it. Variable number two unchanged.

I felt like a big chunk of the writers out there really wanted to make something out of him drawing the rail, but at the end of the day nobody really did, because nobody really could. The two to his immediate right - Goldencents and Titletown Five will get out quickly, and he'll be able to hold his line early, possibly even saving a little ground this time. He should really be able to pick his lane by about the 46 second mark, which is when I'm hoping Titletown Five will complete the first half mile.

Make no mistake, Titletown Five is nothing more than a rabbit here, and is completely outclassed. This isn't a speed horse of the Bodemeister or Shackleford ilk, he's an irresponsible entry from D. W. Lukas who is being counted on to set things up from a pace perspective for Lukas's other two entries, Oxbow and Will Take Charge. And honestly, it should work out for both of them. They'll be right there in the mix with Mylute. Those three might even complete the superfecta. But it will work out for Orb as well, and he'll be the key on top of that ticket.

There is some really fun information to look at from @TrakusRacing https://twitter.com/TrakusRacing . I'm not going to plagiarize it all here, but here is the one that I found the most interesting:

"In the Derby, Orb covered the third-most ground of any horse (just less than Frac Daddy and Vyjack, who covered the most). He went 80 feet more than second-placer Golden Soul, and 84 feet more than third home Revolutionary. There are many factors that go into a race’s results, but Orb’s extra ground coverage is remarkable considering the results. Overall, Orb traveled the equivalent of approximately 9 ½ lengths more than Revolutionary, and about 9 ¾ lengths more than Golden Soul, but actually beat both rivals by more than 2 ½ lengths."

For some reason I do worry a little about the shape of the track at Pimlico, the turns just aren't as wide and sweeping. It's got more of that paperclip feel that can force a serious, spread out slingshot off of the home turn, and cause horses to cover more ground and to lose momentum straightening out. Could be a non-factor, or I could be just imagining things; in either case, more ground isn't going to hurt him, and hopefully tiring horses who are forced to fan out won't either.

So what about Itsmyluckyday (9) , Govenor Charlie (8) (yes that's how it's spelled), and Departing (4)? Exactly. What about them? I'm glad that the good Governor isn't being bet down to disgusting odds. Wait...no I'm not! Get as much money as you can in there on him! Sell your house...sell your kids! Look, I'm not going to tell you he's not a good horse, because he is. And a lot of people will look to his past performances to make a case. I think all you have to do is look at his last race, the Sunland Derby win in New-Texico, and you'll see a confluence of unreliable data. Sure he won, sure he set a track record, but so did five other horses on the card that day. What's the old adage... fast horses don't set records, fast tracks do? Well even if I butchered the adage, the sentiment is sound. I don't have a lot of respect for his preps or the speed figures he posts. And people who want to debate Sunland trips to Gulfstream trips, well, you know how to get a hold of me.

Let's get a triple crown this summer. In two weeks, let's be having conversations about a well-rested Revolutionary coming back to face off against Orb, hopefully without having to dissect any horses who have (GB) or (FR) behind their names. But if you have to try to beat me, then pull for Rosie, pull for D. Wayne's strategy to work out exclusively for his barn, or pull for that nice-looking (2) horse... provided you don't mind seeing Rick Pitino celebrate on your television yet another time this year.

Good luck.

To ORB-fuscate matters...

There is no telling what the weather will actually be doing between now and 6:24 p.m. eastern daylight time this Saturday in Louisville. My best information tells me that there is around a 50% chance that the track at Churchill Downs will already be fairly wet, and another 50% chance that precipitation will continue to fall at post time. Fifty percent and fifty percent. That equates to a couple of coin flips in my estimation, and leads me to the two reasons why I will not be getting bogged down in bloodlines to try and determine whose “Muddah was a Mudder.” Reason number one, I am neither smart enough to do so, nor do I have the attention span to delve into that amount of research at this point. And reason number two, when you go back much further than two generations, most of these horses appear to be more inbred than 18^th century British royalty. On an occasion like this, you’d be clamoring to back a horse with Secretariat in his (or her) bloodlines, right? Well, if you place a wager in this race, chances are that you will be. There are fifteen of them.

There are plenty of sites out there that will give you a rail-to-the-outside rundown of each horse with a two sentence blurb about them if that’s something that helps you out. This year, I’m finding myself more focused on the plusses and minuses of major players, and of those who are just on the outside looking in. I’ll probably get more focused on the also-ran’s as the summer unfolds, but I think this one has shaped up to be pretty chalky, so I won’t be taking many flyers. 

In my humble opinion, and for months now, the conversation has begun, if not ended with Orb (16). The Shug McGuaghey trained colt is the morning line favorite, my favorite, and as sure to hit the board as any Derby morning line favorite in recent memory. Drawing well to the outside should suit him just fine, and with original rider Joel Rosario back in the irons, I trust his trip will be managed expertly.

The bottom line is (to quote Jon White); Orb just has zero strikes against him. He has run in and won top notch graded stakes his last two out. He is always poised in either 1^st or 2^nd at the 1/8 pole, and he never loses position past the 1/8 pole. He’s finished impressively at 1 1/8 mi., proving a solid foundation for the distance. He was raced as a two-year old and comes in with seven career starts under his belt, posting Beyer speed figures of 102 and 97 his last two out. No strikes against a horse in a field where just about all you can do is look for strikes if you plan to do any wagering. But there’s one more thing. On paper, there’s another horse that fits that same bill. It’s not your 4-1 second choice, and not your 5-1 third choice. At 10-1, he’s what the odds-makers see as Todd Pletcher’s 2^nd best entry. Ladies and gentleman, I give you Revolutionary (3) and Calvin Borel … in the three hole … just off of the rail. You’ve heard this tune before, no?

The second choice from the morning line comes to you in the form of Pletcher’s undefeated Verrazano (14). He is ostensibly a co-favorite here, but there is one very large, looming question. Can he become the second horse ever to win the Derby without having raced as a two-year-old? This isn’t a small sample size (138), so I lend this fact a substantial bit of credibility. Can he produce a Bodemeister or Curlin-esque effort and pick up a major award? Of course. Can he become only the second horse in 139 years, and the first in over 100 to win the race outright? Unlikely. He’ll be tough to keep off of your ticket altogether, but for the win, I have to side with history on this one until I’m given a reason not to.

 

When you get past those three there is a formidable second tier of contenders, any one of which could step up and make a statement. Java’s War (19), Goldencents (8), Itsmyluckyday (12), and Mylute (6) with Rosie Napravnik aboard, are the best of the rest. I will be including each in all of my exotics, and will definitely be wishing better things for Rosie than I will for Rick Pitino (Goldencents part-owner). Overanalyze (9) and Vyjack (20) are a tick below this group, and I will look to better spots for each of them later in the summer.

The wise guy pick this year seems to be Normandy Invasion (5). He’s expected to draw quite a bit of late money, so if you feel the need to touch your finger to your nose and give someone the knowing nod before putting him on your ticket, then more power to you. Some of the same folks that liked Animal Kingdom are on board, and there’s still plenty of room at 12-1. And while he may hit the board, I won’t be following suit. He’s just a horse with more knocks on his resume than I think he’ll be able to overcome. Like I said earlier, I need a horse that has more races under his belt than I can count on one hand, a horse who has shown a 1-2 presence at the 1/8 poll in the two races leading up to the Derby, and ideally for those races to be prominent graded stakes wins. And though the Beyer speed figures are impressive, Normandy Invasion misses the mark on each of the other three accounts. If you’re a non-winner of two lifetime starts, I’m sorry, but I’m going to make you beat me.

White also noted a group of four that may otherwise be knocking on the door, were it not for one major shortcoming. When you look at things from a straight speed figure perspective, Black Onyx (1), Charming Kitten (15), Lines of Battle (11), and Palace Malice (10) don’t pass the litmus test. None of the four has surpassed a Beyer figure of 93. Sometimes you don’t have to look too far past a statistic like that to feel confident that a horse is outclassed in a given field. Plain and simple, if that’s where you’ve shown that you top out, you’re not going to be able to hang with the top flight of this field.

That leaves Oxbow (2), Golden Soul (4), Giant Finish (7), Falling Sky (13), Will Take Charge (17), and Frac Daddy (18), to sit back and enjoy the spa treatment all weekend. Having said that, one of them will undoubtedly jump up and kill one of my bigger tickets, but what are you gonna do? This is a year where I'm not looking to beat a favorite, it's a year where I'm going to make the field beat me. It just sets up that way, and I can't find any other way around it. 

One more thing about Goldencents though. Jockey Kevin Krigger will attempt to duplicate Mario Gutierrez's feat from last year in becoming the 3rd jockey in the past nine years to win the Derby in his first attempt. More notably however, he will be attempting to become the first African-American jockey to win the Derby since 1902. So while I will have to bite my Jayhawk lip if Goldencents prevails and I'm forced to watch Rick Pitino celebrate in the winner's circle; the bite will be brief and immediately followed by an immense feeling of admiration for Krigger. You never know which storyline will carry us to the Preakness, but I would not be disappointed if Kevin Krigger was a big part of it. 

Good Luck.