Forty-nine more weeks. Then, maybe, another shot. This year
there will be no comparisons to Touch Gold denying Silver Charm, or to Real
Quiet leading in all but one stride against Victory Gallop. No replays to watch
and feel awful for Spectacular Bid or Sunday Silence. And, concurrently, there
will be no Big Brown mid-race judgment call, no Eight Belles tragedy to try to
stomach, and no Barbaro saga to unfold. Bottom line… to feel cheated today is expected,
if not short-sighted. Doug O’Neil, for all he’s been accused of (rightly or
wrongly) undoubtedly did the right thing here, and he and his team are to be
commended. (WhatWouldDougO'NeilDo?) It’s not as if Affirmed were alive, sipping a glass of champagne
with Mercury Morris and celebrating the fact that their records still stood. There
are no losers here. I’ll Have Another begins his retirement from racing a few
starts early, and there is still a hell of a race to be run Saturday. Potential
tragedy averted. All that being said, let’s face it… this sport needs a triple
crown winner, and this one just felt right.
So another field of eleven, and thankfully nobody with a
(GB) or (FR) behind their name to make my head hurt as I attempt to study past Euro
performances and grasp at straws. Honestly, the scratch doesn’t really change
much from a handicapping perspective, the weather is nice, and the field is
pretty straight forward. I think there are four horses with a shot at hitting
the board here, and two with a shot at taking it… so, without further ado.
Street Life (1) will break from the rail, and might be your
winner. The 1-hole will not be an issue for him, as he’ll look to stay out of
the scrum early and save his best running for last. He’s a fresh, New York-based
horse that circled this race on his calendar months ago, and has been training exclusively
at Belmont since April. For his most recent performance, you’ll have to look
past the Derby and Preakness (neither of which he entered), to find the Peter
Pan Stakes on May 12th… also at Belmont. If you watch that race and
don’t think he wants every bit of a mile and a half, then just stop reading.
That day he was the co-third choice at 8-1, running a mile and a sixteenth… you’ll
get around the same odds at the Belmont, and he’ll get his best distance.
The first of the two Kenny McPeek entries is Unstoppable U
(2). I always look twice when I see a trainer enter two horses, true
stable-mates or not. However, I think this is a product of the close proximity
I have to Steve Asmussen, and more of a “tell” for him than any type of angle I
can delve into across the board (as it were). The issue with Unstoppable U is
that he will stop. He’ll get out early, and hopefully set some quick fractions…but
he’ll get swallowed up like a tic tac when they flatten out after the far turn.
Think Trinniberg…as fast as he can, for as long as he can. Unfortunately, this
race is the longest.
Union Rags (3) should go off around 2-1 as the second choice
or co-favorite, and rightly so…maybe. If you look back to the Champagne last
year at Belmont, you see a horse with plenty in the tank and the ability to
deal with trouble in the stretch. If you look at the Derby, you don’t. I say
over and over that sometimes you have to throw the Derby out, and when we do
that, we’re only left with one question: does he get the distance? I’ve heard
from so many folks that want to dub him a ‘miler’, and while I can’t fall into
rank there, I don’t think this field and this distance set up particularly well
for him. He’s got the talent, and the fight, I just don’t know if he has that
extra ¼ mile with what is going to be unfolding around him. I like him to
finish out the superfecta, and will probably even box him in a trifecta or two,
but I’m just not sold on him being a de facto favorite in I’ll Have Another’s
absence.
The second horse that McPeek has entered, Atigun (4), doesn’t
do a whole lot for me… so make sure you place a win bet on him. He doesn’t have
the class, and I don’t want to waste too many characters trying to document why.
If you need to look past an unimpressive 5th in the Arkansas, and 11th
in the Rebel, then feel free to. I just can’t make a case.
Your morning line favorite will be your favorite at the gate…
and for all intents and purposes, this race is Dullahan’s (5) to lose. He’s
fresh, there’s no reason to suspect a let-down with Castellano in the irons,
the distance is perfect, and the field won’t push him as wide this time… I can’t
find a negative. His works have even been the talk of the track this week – a certified
closer running the fastest first two fractions of his career without being
asked? I guess if you really wanted to get into conspiracy theories, you could
conjure up something about the rider asking for more than was advertised…but
who has time for that? (You’d be surprised)
Ravelo’s Boy (6), Five Sixteen (7), and Guyana Star Dweej
(8) should just enjoy their time on camera and those fancy Belmont digs for the
weekend. I heard one handicapper refer to Five Sixteen’s entry here as nothing
more than an “ego trip.” Maybe a little harsh, and if there is anything to be
pulled out of him, Rosie Napravnik will find it. Simply put, there are just
four or five better horses in here than both the (7) and the (8), and something
will have to go terribly wrong with a couple of them for either horse to have a
chance of taking home a major award.
Bob Baffert’s entry comes in the form of the Derby Trials
place horse, Paynter (9). He’s yet to win a stakes race, and he’s in good
company. Five out of the last six Belmont winners claimed their first stakes
victory in the same spot. The case for him: he’s lightly raced, and is bred for
(and has built up to) the distance; he finished a game fourth in the Santa
Anita behind I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause after bobbling at the start;
he has great early speed and the potential is there to rate off of Unstoppable
U. The case against him: body of work… and I used the words “bobble” and “potential”
in making the case for him. How can you have lack of races as both a positive
and a negative? The former is trainer-sympathetic, relying on bloodlines and
methodology. The latter is ‘wagerer’-sympathetic, and is why the Daily Racing
Form exists. In either case, I expect to see the light blue and yellow colors
from the Zayat racing stables running fast and early. He’ll be on my ticket; I just
hope his tank is big enough to make it worth the while.
Optimizer (10) and My Adonis (12) round out the 2012 field.
If you need any reason not to include Optimizer on your ticket, read anything I’ve
written before today… or more simply, watch him race. My Adonis probably has
just as much of a right to be here (if not a bit more) but his performance
level seems to decrease proportionately with increases in class and distance.
That being said, he’d be a pleasant surprise to crack the top half of the field,
or to jump up and bite someone.
It really should be a great race. You’ll have Paynter and UU
getting out early, Union Rags in the mix on the turn and down the stretch,
Street Life and Dullahan bringing it home… and Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej,
and My Adonis, who will hopefully be more than just traffic. No sample tickets
this time. You can see where my head’s at… this is one to enjoy.
The pomp may be gone, but there is still plenty of
circumstance to make watching this race and following this field worthwhile. I’ll
Have Another will be the story of the day on Saturday, and his connections will
answer every question with poise and expertise. There will be all manner of
canned retrospectives that the networks are scrambling to revise, and a healthy
dose of “what if’s” and “what now’s.” But at the end of the day, the race will
have been run. We’ll have a new horse and new connections enjoying their moment
in the sun, and I’ll Have another will begin to fill out his dance card. And one
more thing is for sure, twenty-five year old Mario Gutierrez’s life will never
be the same. He’ll always have I’ll Have Another, May ’12, and he’ll never hurt
for a mount again. The parting words from a glassy-eyed Gutierrez before
leaving the dressing room on Friday, “He’ll be my hero forever.”
