So, I ended up organizing them into three groups with that thought in mind.
Group 1 (on the lead):
History tells us that the winner of this race will typically be within a few lengths of the pace at nearly every quarter pole that follows the first, so I'll start with the 3 that I expect to be on the lead - American Pharoah, Materiality, and Madefromlucky. I don't see any scenario, other than a bobble at the gate (looking at you Materiality), where American Pharoah and Materiality are not on the lead. And really, I'm doubting there will be any issues with Materiality, seeing as he will have nothing to contend with from the outside and he will be the last to load. Look for him to angle over with Frosted, and settle in just off of American Pharoah by the first quarter pole. However, I do anticipate them having company in Madefromlucky. Mubtaajih may take a little bit of steadying from the rail post, and Tale of Verve might be just enough of a nuisance to actually let Madefromlucky establish the rail position early. If that's the case, then I think he's able to hold the rail up to the first quarter pole, where he will travel along inside of Frosted, eventually being taken over by American Pharoah and Materiality as they approach the clubhouse turn. I know that Madefromlucky likes to be a little bit farther off of the lead and settle in, but I anticipate Pletcher "encouraging" Castellano to get him out there, and get him out there a little more quickly than usual. I think this move may ultimately result in helping Materiality (Pleatcher's other entry) with the pace scenario, and may help to neutralize Mubtaahij and keep him from doing anything crazy early, but will ultimately cost Madefromlucky a chance at a major award.
Group 2 (the closers):
Frosted should settle into the fourth or fifth spot on the backstretch, and he'll be smart to make sure that that positioning is within 4-5 lengths of the lead if he hopes to hit the board. After rewatching the Derby over and over, I remember thinking, "He wants every bit of that mile and a half. Man, I hope Kiaran skips the Preakness and he's fresh in June." But now, I've become relatively sure that if he tries to run the same race on Saturday, it could really cost him. He's going to have to be more forwardly placed than he has been in three of his last four if he hopes to have any shot of winning. So what about that extra distance I was so excited about? What about the way he closed at Churchill? Well, it's just...different.
Take the following into account. Yes, he will have 2 extra furlongs to work with, but it's not the straightaway distance that we saw him charge through at Churchill, or that Tale of Verve picked up the pieces on at Pimlico. The extra distance at Belmont comes into comes into play well before they've completed the final turn. Want a fun fact? The distance from the end of the far turn to the finish line at Pimlico is 1152 ft., or +55 ft. longer than the same stretch at Belmont. Churchill? Add on another +137.5 feet of straightaway homestretch. Convinced that Mubtaajih's blowout homestretch efforts at Meydan will translate? Possible. But it would be better for him to have the extra +281 ft of Meydan straightaway that he's used to. I say all that to illustrate the point that it is a different race, but not just because of the distance, because of the course itself. You'll hear plenty about the long, sweeping turns, and for good reason. Horses don't have to turn as sharply and regroup as they do elsewhere. Speed carries through the turns, and closers - good closers, are often left bringing too little, too late. I'm not saying that Frosted doesn't have what it takes, I'm just saying that he really needs to have a game plan. Sitting back as far as he wants, and then turning on the jets once his hooves hit the home stretch won't be enough.
I expect that Tale of Verve will take some money at the window after his performance at Pimlico, and rightly so. And I will be eternally grateful to him for lining my pockets in the Preakness exotics. I think that race almost killed him though, and don't expect him to come back from it with anything against this field. He'll want to make me eat my words, but last time out he was in the right place at the right time - and that was when you needed to capitalize on him. I do see Keen Ice having some ability fill out the bigger exotics if another horse were to falter, but am basically putting him in the same category with Tale of Verve for wagering purposes. I just think that Frosted is better than both horses, at exactly what both do best. And I think that there are two better horses than Frosted. At some point you just run out of room.
Group 3 (the other two)
So let's dispatch with Frammento right off the bat. I know that I probably could have included him in the closer's group, but I don't think he deserves to be in the same company as the other three. If he does anything on Saturday, hold all tickets until they've performed a blood and urine test.
So that brings us to the big unknown. What are we supposed to do with Mubtaahij? I'm not going to go into his past performances and try to translate anything, and I wouldn't recommend that you listen to anybody who is. I will make a couple of predictions though. I don't think he pulls a Da'Tara and wires the field, and I don't think that he pulls away from a stalking trip and wins by 8 lengths. I also don't think that he gets beat by the likes of Frammento- so the truth is that he's probably somewhere in the middle. When you're a big fish in a small pond, you will always have upside. You'll always have people betting on your success at the next level; expecting it, all the while being void of any type of real data comps. So I will include him on the bottom of my exotics, but anything other than that feels like a big step out on a small limb.
So I think it comes down to American Pharoah and Materiality. I think the speed holds, and I think that Frosted, and possibly Madefromlucky and Mubtaahij make things interesting for awhile and fill out the exotics. I think that I may even throw Keen Ice in there on the bottom side in a few. But I think more than anything that the odds-makers basically got this one right. And while it may not end up being a big pay-day, I think it's going to be one hell of a race with American Pharoah either dueling to the wire with Materiality, or pulling away in the final furlong. A Triple Crown is just what the doctor ordered. I was born in 1978. Thirty-six years is a long time.
Good Luck.
