Belmont 2015 - Pharoah's Fortune

I found myself getting hyper-focused on some interesting historical betting and track bias perspectives on the Belmont this year. But after a lot of sifting through minutia, I am left thinking that the only really important distinction that needs to be made among the eight entrants on Saturday, is nothing more than their running style.

So, I ended up organizing them into three groups with that thought in mind.

Group 1 (on the lead):

History tells us that the winner of this race will typically be within a few lengths of the pace at nearly every quarter pole that follows the first, so I'll start with the 3 that I expect to be on the lead - American Pharoah, Materiality, and Madefromlucky. I don't see any scenario, other than a bobble at the gate (looking at you Materiality), where American Pharoah and Materiality are not on the lead. And really, I'm doubting there will be any issues with Materiality, seeing as he will have nothing to contend with from the outside and he will be the last to load. Look for him to angle over with Frosted, and settle in just off of American Pharoah by the first quarter pole. However, I do anticipate them having company in Madefromlucky. Mubtaajih may take a little bit of steadying from the rail post, and Tale of Verve might be just enough of a nuisance to actually let Madefromlucky establish the rail position early. If that's the case, then I think he's able to hold the rail up to the first quarter pole, where he will travel along inside of Frosted, eventually being taken over by American Pharoah and Materiality as they approach the clubhouse turn. I know that Madefromlucky likes to be a little bit farther off of the lead and settle in, but I anticipate Pletcher "encouraging" Castellano to get him out there, and get him out there a little more quickly than usual. I think this move may ultimately result in helping Materiality (Pleatcher's other entry) with the pace scenario, and may help to neutralize Mubtaahij and keep him from doing anything crazy early, but will ultimately cost Madefromlucky a chance at a major award.

Group 2 (the closers):

Frosted should settle into the fourth or fifth spot on the backstretch, and he'll be smart to make sure that that positioning is within 4-5 lengths of the lead if he hopes to hit the board. After rewatching the Derby over and over, I remember thinking,  "He wants every bit of that mile and a half. Man, I hope Kiaran skips the Preakness and he's fresh in June." But now, I've become relatively sure that if he tries to run the same race on Saturday, it could really cost him. He's going to have to be more forwardly placed than he has been in three of his last four if he hopes to have any shot of winning. So what about that extra distance I was so excited about? What about the way he closed at Churchill? Well, it's just...different.

Take the following into account. Yes, he will have 2 extra furlongs to work with, but it's not the straightaway distance that we saw him charge through at Churchill, or that Tale of Verve picked up the pieces on at Pimlico. The extra distance at Belmont comes into comes into play well before they've completed the final turn. Want a fun fact? The distance from the end of the far turn to the finish line at Pimlico is 1152 ft., or +55 ft. longer than the same stretch at Belmont. Churchill? Add on another +137.5 feet of straightaway homestretch. Convinced that Mubtaajih's blowout homestretch efforts at Meydan will translate? Possible. But it would be better for him to have the extra +281 ft of Meydan straightaway that he's used to. I say all that to illustrate the point that it is a different race, but not just because of the distance, because of the course itself. You'll hear plenty about the long, sweeping turns, and for good reason. Horses don't have to turn as sharply and regroup as they do elsewhere. Speed carries through the turns, and closers - good closers, are often left bringing too little, too late. I'm not saying that Frosted doesn't have what it takes, I'm just saying that he really needs to have a game plan. Sitting back as far as he wants, and then turning on the jets once his hooves hit the home stretch won't be enough.

I expect that Tale of Verve will take some money at the window after his performance at Pimlico, and rightly so. And I will be eternally grateful to him for lining my pockets in the Preakness exotics. I think that race almost killed him though, and don't expect him to come back from it with anything against this field. He'll want to make me eat my words, but last time out he was in the right place at the right time - and that was when you needed to capitalize on him. I do see Keen Ice having some ability fill out the bigger exotics if another horse were to falter, but am basically putting him in the same category with Tale of Verve for wagering purposes. I just think that Frosted is better than both horses, at exactly what both do best. And I think that there are two better horses than Frosted. At some point you just run out of room.

Group 3 (the other two)

So let's dispatch with Frammento right off the bat. I know that I probably could have included him in the closer's group, but I don't think he deserves to be in the same company as the other three. If he does anything on Saturday, hold all tickets until they've performed a blood and urine test.

So that brings us to the big unknown. What are we supposed to do with Mubtaahij? I'm not going to go into his past performances and try to translate anything, and I wouldn't recommend that you listen to anybody who is. I will make a couple of predictions though. I don't think he pulls a Da'Tara and wires the field, and I don't think that he pulls away from a stalking trip and wins by 8 lengths. I also don't think that he gets beat by the likes of Frammento- so the truth is that he's probably somewhere in the middle. When you're a big fish in a small pond, you will always have upside. You'll always have people betting on your success at the next level; expecting it, all the while being void of any type of real data comps. So I will include him on the bottom of my exotics, but anything other than that feels like a big step out on a small limb. 

So I think it comes down to American Pharoah and Materiality. I think the speed holds, and I think that Frosted, and possibly Madefromlucky and Mubtaahij make things interesting for awhile and fill out the exotics. I think that I may even throw Keen Ice in there on the bottom side in a few. But I think more than anything that the odds-makers basically got this one right. And while it may not end up being a big pay-day, I think it's going to be one hell of a race with American Pharoah either dueling to the wire with Materiality, or pulling away in the final furlong. A Triple Crown is just what the doctor ordered. I was born in 1978. Thirty-six years is a long time. 

Good Luck.

Preakness

We hit the Trifecta, Superfecta, and Pick-3 for the second Triple Crown race in a row.

That is all.

Kentucky Derby Preview 2015 - Just the trip.

This year we'll pay homage to the NCAA selection committee and present this with a first-out, last-out -- last-in, first-in approach. Clear as mud? Four groups of five - from worst to first. Good luck.

*NOTE* With the scratch of #7 El Kabeir, #11 Stanford, and #12 International Star, the inner and outer stalls will be vacated. ENTRY NUMBERS WILL NOT CHANGE. The also eligible Frammento will don the #21 saddle cloth and be installed at gate #19. The second also eligible horse, Tale of Verve has scratched as well. The field stands at 18.

First 5 out:

SCRATCH*#11) Stanford: I can make a great case for this horse if he’s running in a G3 at Lone Star Park, but it’s really tough to have confidence in him in this spot. The son of Malibu Moon (Orb), and grandson of Distorted Humor was great in the Louisiana Derby, where he ran his first race clear of any trouble. He fought down the stretch and posted a near double-digit speed figure increase with the clean trip. The more I watch his races, the more I figure him on his best day to be the Firing Line of the junior circuit. Unfortunately, Firing Line himself, and the rest of the senior circuit are in this field. Is he on the rise? I suppose. But to this point, his most recent race was the exception, not the rule. (*Scratch – replaced by ‘also eligible’ Frammento who will wear the #21 saddle cloth – no bid)

#1) Ocho Ocho Ocho: This was one of my 1st five out even before the post draw, which ultimately sealed his fate. He has some speed, but he doesn’t handle trouble well, especially early – and that’s all he going to find here. When the field collapses to the rail before the 1st quarter pole, he’ll likely get sucked up and have trouble responding. If he does manage to get the jump on the two Pletcher horses to his outside and head up the field through the first quarter, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll have anything left for the last quarter.

#17) Mr. Z: The second of three of Malibu Moon’s progeny left in the field, and the one most likely to have a *DNF next to his name when the final results are posted. (stolen line that I can’t even remember the origination of now – but one that I couldn’t have agreed with more.) Respect all of those 2’s and 3’s in his past performances to your own peril, there are a lot of horses who will steal those spots in this field. It’s just not going to set up for him to pick up the garbage that’s left like he has done over the past year. Need more convincing? The last two races, he was stretched out to 1 1/8 miles at which point he was described as “stopping” and finishing 9th in February and then “flattening out” for a near double-digit length 3rd last month. On Saturday, he gets an additional 3/16 of a mile thrown at him.

#13) Itsaknockout: All I really see here is an out-classed mile claimer. His connections shrewdly accrued points at Gulfstream to make sure that he could be entered in the field to promote the Mayweather – Pacquiao fight. Say it’s a coincidence that became a fit as the spring progressed – but I’m not buying it. At his core, he’s just a slower horse who is out of his depth here.

#14) Keen Ice: I do not know why this horse is in this race. I guess there is a scenario where he could pick up some late pieces, but not in the way that say, Danzig Moon will be able to.


Last 5 out:

#4) Tencendur: I would’ve much rather seen Far From Over, the horse who put him away twice at Aqueduct, than I would Tencendur. Most are in agreement that he ran the race of his life to finish second at the Wood last month, but speed figure-wise, it wasn’t much different than the Gotham, and the pace was even a bit slower (allowing for the extra 1/16, and not suggesting that the slower pace helped him). The more I look at his consistently average figures and how those Aqueduct fields cross reference with other tracks this spring, the more dislike the Wood and Gotham fields as a whole – races that he finished 2nd and 5th in, respectively.

#5) Danzig Moon: The final Malibu Moon colt in the field, making it a perfect 100% who will fail to hit the board. If you look at his past performances, you’ll see a horse that can come up through the field and pick off others who are tiring or all-out throwing in the towel. But he’s not a horse that is going to be on or near the lead at any point in this race. Look for some late ground coverage to get him out of the bottom 5 and into the second 5, but he’ll be a slower horse here than he was at the Bluegrass – and that won’t cut it.

SCRATCH*#7) El Kabeir: This one scares me a little bit, but ultimately I don’t see him being part of the final picture. Go five races back, last before the lay-off, and you’ll find his only start at Churchill – a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with guess who in the irons. It took everything he had to pull off the wire-to-wire win over International Star and Lord Nelson (among others) that day, but a wire-to-wire scenario here doesn’t seem likely when you couple the distance with the early speed in this field. I do expect Borel to angle over, and I do expect him to make me legitimately nervous for a couple of furlongs. I just don’t think he has enough horse down the stretch, no matter what kind of deal Calvin has made with the devil at Churchill.

#20) Far Right: One thing is for sure, if you’re having trouble finding Far Right on the track, look for the turquoise and gold silks of Mr. Z. In their last four starts, the two have finished within 4 lengths to the good or bad of each other, with Far Right coming out ahead in three of the four. He’ll look to fold in behind the field with Upstart rather than trying to keep up with American Pharoah as he angles across the front right out of the gate. And speaking of American Pharoah, I think he managed to show the spring stakes field at Oaklawn for what it really is in the Arkansas Derby. An impressive victory, yes; but I think the field (Far Right among them) will prove to be substandard.

#16) War Story: So it’s no secret that the Louisiana circuit is getting slammed this spring. International Star getting disrespected because of the soft competition, and War Story chief among that group. I was really focused on that start he had last fall at Churchill – going 5-6 wide on the far turn and coming home impressively, and I wanted to make him my Giacomo for several days. He likes to sit back, and has a stretch run in him, but the obvious is there – if he can’t figure it out against International Star in Louisiana, how does it all come together in Kentucky? I think he’ll see the fastest fractions yet, which is good, but I don’t see this setting up anywhere near the :45 flat half-mile pace that Giacomo saw in ’05. I’ll play him across the board for a few shekels, but after one last look, had to pull him from my exotics.


Last 5 in:

#9) Bolo: Carla Gaines seems pretty confident about her entry, despite the criticism she’s received for continuing to race him off of the turf. He’s been held out wide and fought to hang on for relatively distant 3rds his last two times out on dirt at Santa Anita, albeit behind Dortmund who was the fraction setter in both. The place horses in each race, Prospect Park and One Lucky Dane, are
better quality than several in this field in my opinion, and that gives me pause from throwing him out entirely. He’ll be able to make up some ground, and has shown that he has pretty good speed figures in him when racing among the best in California this spring. And to be clear, I’m putting California and Florida shippers above New York and Louisiana shippers this year. Oaklawn is the wild card in my opinion because, well, American Pharoah. But there’s also something to be said for a trainer with that look in their eye, and after seeing Carla talk about her horse a couple of times this week, I’m convinced she has it. The question is, does that simply mean he’s ready to give his best effort, or that she feels his best effort is enough to win. I’m not anywhere close to convinced about the latter.

#19) Upstart: He shows a predisposition for finding traffic & trouble, and for working his way through the field the hard way. He will have the opportunity to do both on Saturday. I’ve given this horse a bunch of looks, and there are more bullet points than I know what to do with. Never doing worse than 3rd is promising, past fields have been arguably solid, up and down (alternating) speed figures are troubling, as is the post draw. He’s my ultimate bubble horse, and he could just as easily crack the top 5 as he could fall out of the top 10. You look at the names finishing around him on his resume, and it makes him really hard to leave out. My prediction is that I will cut and paste him higher up on the list before I am finished writing this.


#3) Materiality: I guess this is as good of a place as any to throw in the first of the three remaining Pletcher entries. (Stanford being the 4th before the scratch – talk about a volume shooter.) First and foremost, the curse. He didn’t race at the age of two, and we all know that you have to go back over 100 years, and blah, blah, blah…but in this case, we’re talking about 11 days making the difference. Yes he’s inexperienced, but he’s also shown that all he does is exactly what is asked of him. If you want to slap a third negative on him (to add to the Pletcher/Derby record + no races at 2yo angle), then watch the Florida Derby. It’s a win against a solid contender in Upstart, but those were tired, loping horses down the stretch. I’ll give him that it was a quick turnaround from the previous race, and this time he’ll have had closer to 6 weeks off, but he’s going to need to have re-charged his batteries big time, and might just prove to be a little green when it comes down to it. He also loses the only rider he has known (Johnny Velazquez) to stable-mate Carpe Diem. Not a deal-breaker, but could be meaningful to such a lightly-raced colt.

SCRATCH*#12) International Star:

Q: How does the Derby Trial points leader open as a 20-1 co-8th choice?
A: There are two reasons: #1- He didn’t leave Louisiana this spring, and nobody came to him &
                                          #2- 2014 happened.

International Star was able to sock away a ton of points beating what has been perceived as pretty soft company at Fair Grounds this spring, and when you look at his 2014, it should give you tremendous pause. As recently as October he was finishing 9th on the turf at Santa Anita, concluding a back-and-forth sequence between turf and dirt that included all 6 races last year. He finally settled on dirt for good (we think) in his last race of the year at Churchill. However, he ended up missing the board entirely, 6 lengths behind winner El Kabeir. In the same way I mentioned moving Upstart up the list before all is said and done, I can see myself moving this horse down.

#15) Frosted: Here’s my exception to a couple of points I’ve made about New York and some of the previous fields. I think that Frosted has all the potential in the world to figure into this race in the later stages, and am encouraged by the fact that he made it down to Florida for the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. I’m also encouraged by the turnaround at Aqueduct after his throat procedure, despite the fact that the caliber of horses he beat was lacking in my opinion. I will also say that the move from the 15 stall (1st auxiliary gate) to the 14 stall (last standard gate) is not a positive in my opinion. He’s going to lose a little bit of space to work with, but it may be a non-factor with a horse like Keen Ice to his inside. His speed figures are also a bit suspect, and I’m not a fan of the Godolphin / Kiaran McLaughlin connections. That being said, this is going to be the race where we find out who this horse really is. And to be honest, I don’t want to be on the wrong side of it. This is the horse that I wanted to leave out early on, but he’s just sitting there sticking me in my side, threatening to ruin a big ticket. There’s one in every race, and he’s my one.



First 5 in:

#6) Mubtaahij: Hands down the greatest unknown of the race, and another horse that I am more afraid of being on the wrong side of than I am making room for on a ticket. You don’t have to dig too deep for the negatives: his last win is the UEA -- and UEA winners are 0-10 lifetime when shipping for the Derby. His best races are against the equivalent of Grade2-3 company in the US, which puts him somewhere in the middle of this pack. He had to travel 8,000 miles & US customs won’t even let his team bring his regular feed into the country. The list goes on. But there are also some positives, the first of which is that the race distance will not be an issue. There will be no wall for this horse to hit, and he will gallop out of a mile and a quarter with a smile on his face. He’s only been beaten once out of five on dirt, and that by a head to a rival that he returned the favor to, going away by 8 lengths last time out. There’s a trainer angle here as well. Mike de Kock is about as respected as they come in the international thoroughbred community. He’s known as a shipping expert, and for picking his spots in the US. He doesn’t ship to compete, he ships to win. All reports from Arlington Park (where de Kock has previously shipped and won the Arlington Millions) are that Mubtaajih arrived no worse for the wear, and has even seemed particularly alert and up for his works these past two weeks.

#2) Carpe Diem: This horse may make or break himself in the gate. Drawing the 2-hole is bad enough based on its location. But when you combine it with the extended amount of time that horse has wait while others load, you’ve got the makings of a rough minute or two - especially for a horse that has a reputation for being temperamental and fractious around the gate. He’s going to have to dig in to get out of there quickly, and then budget better than most for those last two furlongs. I know that that is stating the obvious. My point is more about how difficult it might be for him if he is stressed and expending tremendous amounts of energy in the paddock, and then compounding matters in the stall. Al that being said, if everything goes according to plan at the start, and he even gets the smallest bit of cooperation from his Pletcher brethren to the right, this horse will be a big contender coming down the stretch. The distance and class are in no way an issue, and he can be put together a stalking trip with the best in the world. If American Pharoah and Dortmund are 1a, on an average day, this horse is 1b.

#10) Firing Line: So I say what I just said about Carpe Diem, and then place Firing Line right ahead of him. Honestly, it’s nothing more than that little bit of uncertainty with Carpe Diem, and I think that very little separates the two horses. If you’re going to watch his last three out, appreciate what basically amounted to two head-bobs with Dortmund as much as you appreciate the romp at the Sunland. This is a very impressive horse who has posted some wicked speed figures, and is looking for a big score. I think he’ll like the change of scenery, and I love him having Gary Stevens in the irons again and a 6-week rest.

#8) Dortmund & #18) American Pharoah:
If you’ve read this far, you’ve gotten the information you were looking for, or have decided to move on and find it elsewhere. I don’t need to tell you that these are the two favorites or why. And I’m not going to try to separate them. I will say that I am not concerned with Pharoah’s foot, post position, or the spelling of his name for that matter. I think both have the tactical speed to get where they need to be early, and despite what some hard-core bloodline and progeny analysts will tell you, the physical and mental makeup to be there late. It’s just the trip, man. All about the trip.

Lone Star Park Analysis Races 1-5 (Saturday, April 11, 2015)

Race 1 - Claiming - $5K (5 1/2 Furlongs - Dirt)

The (1)Lindau showed some speed against similar company toward the end of the summer last year, but hasn't done anything since. I expect early speed, and not much late. The eyeball test points me to at least 4 better horses in this field.

I'll give the (2)Harmony Grove a legitimate shot to hit the board here. He's making a class drop, and is back with his original owner/trainer/jockey combo. He's had success, albeit not at Lone Star, but he's got a shot to show up today. He feels like a bottom side of the exotics-type play.

For the (3)Explosive War, today is just another stamp on the passport. The only thing that this horse is having more trouble finding than a home, is a win.

The (4)Goldandsilver is very interesting, mainly because I can't make sense of the odds. I get the connections, but where is the class and past performance success? I don't see how this horse does anything different than what he's done before: throw up a mid-50's speed figure and lope around, not really aware of whether he's going five furlongs or a mile and a sixteenth. I'm going to try to beat him.

I think that dialing back the distance for the (5)Jorge W F is going to help him out a lot today, and he's done pretty well after a layoff. Has a decent shot to hit the board in the way that the #2 horse does that I mentioned earlier.

The only thing that interests me about the (6)My Picasso, and the (7)Cuz Jolee, is the reasoning behind why Lindy Wade is offering his services to the former. These are both career middle-of-the-pack $5K claimers, and I don't see a thing changing today.

The last two horses in the field are going to be the ones to determine the outcome, and I'm glad I got to say this during the first race of the meet: Watch out for Shea Stuart. The (8)Jagati is a Danny Keene-owned horse these days, (after a $40K purchase and a year under Steve Asmussen's tutelage) and he's got Iram Diego in the irons Saturday. The drop in class, along with the consistent speed figures and connections make him what I believe to be the class of the field.

The Karl Broberg-trained (9)Black Label would be my pick, were it not for the distance and recent performance. (And the fact that I really have a thing for the #8 horse today for some reason). I think he comes home in the money, but there are a few more variables than I like to see in a horse at such short odds. And moving forward, as confident as I am that Shea Stuart is going to have a great meet, I have every bit of that same confidence in Karl Broberg trainees. You will likely never see me leave one of his entries off of my ticket.

MyPlays:
#8 ACROSS THE BOARD
EX: 8 / 9,5,2
TRI WHEEL: 8 / 9,5,2 / 9,5,2



Race 2 - Claiming - $7.5K (Dirt Mile)

The battle of the class droppers. This could be a pretty competitive race for what it is. Brett Calhoun has two horses here, and the (1)Jet Trick looks to be the more capable entry. He is coming out of $20K-$30K fields, and picks up Lindy Wade on Saturday. The other horse, (2) Barani is dropping in class as well, but has something to prove with the distance. I've seen this plenty of times before with Steve Asmussen; the favorite loses out to the 2nd entry with odds around 10-1, but it would be a big get for the 2 horse today - plenty of other talent in this field.

The (3)Seven Spot is a proven loser at this class and distance. He is a race horse that does not win horse races, and I don't see him being incredibly useful on your ticket.

The (4)Laudy is much more intriguing. Love the connections here with Danny Pish and David Cabrera teaming up for a Straus-owned 3-year-old colt. Swung for the fences with his last entry, but settles back to this field just perfectly. No doubt that his name will be in the paper tomorrow.

You have to love the connections of the (5)Lookin At Sneaky as well, and he picks up Quincy Hamilton, coming off a win last time out at $10K. With only four lifetime races, he may still have something to prove, or... we might be watching a young horse rounding into his best form. Going to be hard to leave him off my ticket in some way, shape, or form.

The same can't be said for the (6)Ithinkicandoit. No... no you can't. When the majority of your speed figures are smaller than my age, you don't get a second look.

More good trainer-jockey combos with the innocently named (7)Just the Tap. Asmussen and Mora will probably get hammered at the window, but I'm not a huge fan here. It seems like they are having a tough time deciding on a distance, and his best results are a little misleading and often 1st off a layoff, which is not the case today. I'm looking for value elsewhere, and I don't have to go too far to find it. The (8)Mister Ricky might be my favorite 'under the radar' shot today. In a field packed with big name connections and lots of class droppers, the Davidson - Chacaltana entry should not be overlooked. He is shortening up to what is probably his best distance, and if the class can hold, I love his chances to hit the board at a price.

The (9)Senor Big doesn't give me any real reason to take a second look. He looks to be at the right level, but I think there's too much in this particular field. I don't expect him to enjoy the outside post much, and think that this will be more about building experience. I'll be interested to see him later in the summer in lifetime races 7 and 8.

MyPlays:
#8 ACROSS THE BOARD
TRI BOX: 1,4,5,8



Race 3 - Claiming - $10K (Turf Mile)

(And hardest race on the card to handicap...IMO)

Lindy Wade gets a 1st time mount on the (1)Hollywood Script, who has always failed to put up two solid races back to back. Bad news coming off a win his last time out, albeit against a decent field, and while posting a decent speed rating. It's a surface and distance combo that should work, but I'm wary of a potential soft turf course holding a lot of moisture, paired with a horse that has a tendency to "tire" and "fade" in far too many outings.

Short and Sweet... I don't know what about (2)Steel Vice says that he wants a mile, and moreover, that he wants that mile to be on turf. Monarchos bloodlines be damned - this is a proven, $7.5K dirt claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs. Why not just keep him there and make a few bucks along the way?

I would give a look at (3)Too Much Duck if the weather called for the race to be moved to the main track, but absent that, I don't see a lot here. He's proven knocking off $3.5K - $5K claimers in San Antonio and Houston on the dirt, but there are proven turf horses here that can perform at a different level.

The (4)Fizzano is another instance of where we're going to to agree to disagree today. He has the Asmussen - Mora connection that got him the morning line odds, and some decent wins in 2014 and speed figures to provide some supporting documentation. Unfortunately, I place a lot of weight in trends... and that's why I almost want to throw this horse out all together. The connections have been lowering the expectations for this horse for a year now, hoping to return to early-mid 2014 form, but it hasn't happened. He's placed better in successive races, but all the while, the stakes have been lowered and he has still failed to finish in the money. Asmussen has gone through 5 different jock's in each of the last 5 races with no success, and is hoping a return to Mora can help him to at least hit the board. It would be an enormous achievement for...wait, what am I talking about? No it wouldn't... It's a $10K claimer... play him or don't. Sheesh.

The (5)Wilcox has been routinely and handily beaten by others on this card and in this field. There is no trend to suggest that anything changes here. We can also throw out the (6)Wild Slew. This horse simply does not want the distance. When terms like "tiring, weakened, and gave way" accompany finishes like 7th, 8th, and 9th in 2015...move on. While we're at it, I can't find anything about (7)Bendanie that looks attractive. But for some reason, kicking this horse out scares me. Call it a gut feeling. Either the (4) or the (7) is going to show up... and ruin some otherwise pefectly good tickets.

I do, however, have reason to play the (8)Signature Event. I'm going to be all over the Keene owned and Stuart trained horses for this entire meet. Mark it down. This is a jump in class, but he appears ready. There is good past performance to point to on the turf at Lone Star, and he has had some of the best jock's on him of late. If CJ is up to the task on Saturday, this horse is in play... big time.

The (9)Figaro has tested the waters at the $25K-&35K level, but has probably found his spot in the $10k-$15K claimer range, when you couple it with his past mile turf success at Lone Star. Not a good 2015 debut, but the drop in class will help. Don't count this colt out after a 2+ month layoff.

Sporting Holiday(10) is a 'connections-only' play in my opinion. This horse hasn't races in a year and a half, but Quincy Hamilton IS HIS GUY. If anyone is going to shock the board, it's this combo.

So we follow that up with (11)Tiz Gianni. Simply put, One-Turf-Mile is the surface and distance for this 7-yr-old son of Giacomo. Not a mile and one foot, not a mile and one inch. One mile. Throw out the last race and expect this horse to claim a major award if new jockey Ivan Arellano can use him efficiently. This looks to be the appropriate class level, and he'll welcome all comers who are looking for something to prove.

And now for the last horse in the field, and with respectable odds, no less. (12)B'wanagoldmine is definitely racing at his level on Saturday, and he loves the turf at Lone Star (9/12 in the money lifetime). It does trouble me that 3 others in this field have beaten him straight up 5x over the past year, and he has failed to return the favor. He's in the mix, but not a "WIN" bet, despite the odds and connections.

*This was a very challenging race to handicap, 1st Saturday card of the Lone Star meet, Big field, Turf with potentially bad weather. I would not recommend multi-race inclusions here, unless you are willing to go a bit deep.

MyPlays:
I don't know how to separate the the back half of this field, but I believe the board will feature it almost exclusively. Give me the #11 and the #8 or #10 to beat out the #4 and possibly the #12. Just have fun with this one. Pick one of the 5 ACROSS THE BOARD and ride it out, or get down on some cheap SUPERFECTA BOXES


Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming - $15K (6 Furlongs - Dirt)

(1)Home Time has had some success at this level, and the distance is correct, but he has not recovered his 2014 form in 2015. I want to see something better than a couple of 4th place finishes against 'lesser thans', (and most recently an 8th) before I back him to hit the board.

(2)Kitty Blonde. I don't get the distance they chose for this horse's next race. It's a Broberg trainee, and will get some mutual love on that alone, but this seems like a Hail Mary to me. In recent outings, he has not shown the ability to be in the lead (or even in the money) at this distance - and maybe that's meaningless, but maybe it's not. He has two wins in recent memory, both at a mile, and both at the $7.5K - $10K level. Nothing is trending toward success here.

(3)Awesome J T is on somewhat of a roller-coaster ride. On the plus side, he's getting back-to-back mounts by one of my favorite jockeys for Lone Star this meet - David Cabrera. On the minus side, he's only hit the board once at Lone Star, and that was against $6.25K claimers. On the plus side, he's 2/4 in the money with one win against similar company in 2015. I'm going with the pluses here. Like the odds I''ll probably get for this entry in this spot.

While (4)Witt's Tax Day lacks the speed figures (though they are improving) to be a contender here, he seems to be placed at the correct level and may have a shot to hit the board. One thing that concerns me is the inordinate amount of trouble he has had out of the gate at Lone Star... and only at Lone Star. This is not a 'horse for the course,' and not a true threat to win on Saturday.

The (5) Pagador doesn't give me much to go on. It's the 6-yr-old's 1st start of the year, and he has not had any success at this level. In contrast, the (6)Salt Lake Flyer has shown previous success at the level and on the Lone Star dirt in particular. This is a horse that will consistently move forward in the field from post to post, and I would not be surprised at a repeat of his past time out - a win at the same level and distance, sporting a 93 Equibase speed figure.

If you want to take a shot on a horse with something to prove, the (7)Special Tree is yours to have. He's coming off of three straight wins at the $5K claiming level in Houston and San Antonio, but makes a huge jump in class here, and needs the best efforts of Joe Offolter and Gerardo Mora to stick the landing. Maybe Offolter knows something... or maybe he is what he is.

The (8)Bringitonhomecapt. has shown some fight in the stretch against similar company, and definitely has the class and performance history to warrant a "Win" bet here. We'll just have to see how he takes to the dirt at Lone Star. Five furlongs and turf seem to be a pretty solid combo for the 6-yr-old... at dirt and six furlongs, he has a victory over $4K claimers in Houston in February, and a 7th place effort at the $21K level, finishing 8 1/2 lengths behind (3)Awesome J T in January.

MyPlays:
#3 ACROSS THE BOARD
TRI WHEEL 3,8 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,6,7,8
TRI / SUPER BOX 3,6,7,8



Race 5 - Wayne Hanks Memorial Stakes - $50K (6 1/2 Furlongs - Dirt)

Lasting Bubbles - Early Fantasy; Early Fantasy - Lasting Bubbles. This one's shaping up to be pretty chalky. I think the best value stands to be made with an Exacta and Tri-Wheel betting approach. Lasting Bubbles(1) is the class of the field. She has great speed figures in a slew of well-rated races, has been dominate at Lone Star Park, and won't scoff at the jockey change to Iram Diego.

The (2)Infectious and the (3)Afoolsbrokenheart have a pretty decent shot to hit the board, but the latter of which's fate will be based on how she responds to the field in a significant class jump. She's a horse with great connections, but hasn't faced the pace or posted the speed figures it will likely take to hit the wire without a few others in front of her. Infectious(2) has equally good connections, and more experience at the level. Class and speed are still a concern though, and I suspect a minor award.

The (4)Scooter's Choice didn't impress me as much as she did the odds-makers.  She looks to have desperately needed the layoff that was afforded her following the turn she took for the worse in June and July of last year. If form holds, her best shot may be in her first race back after the long layoff. She will be part of the early speed, but I don't think she wants the extra football field she'll have to run this time out.

The (5)Early Fantasy either starts, or rounds out the Exacta. Another who will benefit from the 7 week layoff, and I'm willing to throw out the last race at 5 1/2 furlongs. Cabrera was able to use the rail to slip past the (1)Lasting Bubbles, and the (6)Platinum Song in a similar race, two back in Houston. He drew the rail that day, and the 5-hole Saturday...I don't think that's much of a factor in this 6-horse field.

The (6)Platinum Song rounds out the field, which she might do in all actuality on Saturday. It looks as though her best days were as a 2-3 year old, and that she has been searching for an appropriate level and appropriate races ever since. She had early success under Danny Pish... and Bernard and Mayfield have done well at lower levels since, but the proof is in the pudding. Last time out she was "empty" down the stretch H2H against the (1)Lasting Bubbles and the (5)Early Fantasy. That race was at 6 furlongs, this one stretches out to 6 1/2.

MyPlays:
EX BOX 1-5
TRI WHEEL 1,5 / 1,5 / 2,3,6