Race 1 - Claiming - $5K (5 1/2 Furlongs - Dirt)
The (1)Lindau showed some speed against similar company toward the end of the summer last year, but hasn't done anything since. I expect early speed, and not much late. The eyeball test points me to at least 4 better horses in this field.
I'll give the (2)Harmony Grove a legitimate shot to hit the board here. He's making a class drop, and is back with his original owner/trainer/jockey combo. He's had success, albeit not at Lone Star, but he's got a shot to show up today. He feels like a bottom side of the exotics-type play.
For the (3)Explosive War, today is just another stamp on the passport. The only thing that this horse is having more trouble finding than a home, is a win.
The (4)Goldandsilver is very interesting, mainly because I can't make sense of the odds. I get the connections, but where is the class and past performance success? I don't see how this horse does anything different than what he's done before: throw up a mid-50's speed figure and lope around, not really aware of whether he's going five furlongs or a mile and a sixteenth. I'm going to try to beat him.
I think that dialing back the distance for the (5)Jorge W F is going to help him out a lot today, and he's done pretty well after a layoff. Has a decent shot to hit the board in the way that the #2 horse does that I mentioned earlier.
The only thing that interests me about the (6)My Picasso, and the (7)Cuz Jolee, is the reasoning behind why Lindy Wade is offering his services to the former. These are both career middle-of-the-pack $5K claimers, and I don't see a thing changing today.
The last two horses in the field are going to be the ones to determine the outcome, and I'm glad I got to say this during the first race of the meet: Watch out for Shea Stuart. The (8)Jagati is a Danny Keene-owned horse these days, (after a $40K purchase and a year under Steve Asmussen's tutelage) and he's got Iram Diego in the irons Saturday. The drop in class, along with the consistent speed figures and connections make him what I believe to be the class of the field.
The Karl Broberg-trained (9)Black Label would be my pick, were it not for the distance and recent performance. (And the fact that I really have a thing for the #8 horse today for some reason). I think he comes home in the money, but there are a few more variables than I like to see in a horse at such short odds. And moving forward, as confident as I am that Shea Stuart is going to have a great meet, I have every bit of that same confidence in Karl Broberg trainees. You will likely never see me leave one of his entries off of my ticket.
MyPlays:
#8 ACROSS THE BOARD
EX: 8 / 9,5,2
TRI WHEEL: 8 / 9,5,2 / 9,5,2
Race 2 - Claiming - $7.5K (Dirt Mile)
The battle of the class droppers. This could be a pretty competitive race for what it is. Brett Calhoun has two horses here, and the (1)Jet Trick looks to be the more capable entry. He is coming out of $20K-$30K fields, and picks up Lindy Wade on Saturday. The other horse, (2) Barani is dropping in class as well, but has something to prove with the distance. I've seen this plenty of times before with Steve Asmussen; the favorite loses out to the 2nd entry with odds around 10-1, but it would be a big get for the 2 horse today - plenty of other talent in this field.
The (3)Seven Spot is a proven loser at this class and distance. He is a race horse that does not win horse races, and I don't see him being incredibly useful on your ticket.
The (4)Laudy is much more intriguing. Love the connections here with Danny Pish and David Cabrera teaming up for a Straus-owned 3-year-old colt. Swung for the fences with his last entry, but settles back to this field just perfectly. No doubt that his name will be in the paper tomorrow.
You have to love the connections of the (5)Lookin At Sneaky as well, and he picks up Quincy Hamilton, coming off a win last time out at $10K. With only four lifetime races, he may still have something to prove, or... we might be watching a young horse rounding into his best form. Going to be hard to leave him off my ticket in some way, shape, or form.
The same can't be said for the (6)Ithinkicandoit. No... no you can't. When the majority of your speed figures are smaller than my age, you don't get a second look.
More good trainer-jockey combos with the innocently named (7)Just the Tap. Asmussen and Mora will probably get hammered at the window, but I'm not a huge fan here. It seems like they are having a tough time deciding on a distance, and his best results are a little misleading and often 1st off a layoff, which is not the case today. I'm looking for value elsewhere, and I don't have to go too far to find it. The (8)Mister Ricky might be my favorite 'under the radar' shot today. In a field packed with big name connections and lots of class droppers, the Davidson - Chacaltana entry should not be overlooked. He is shortening up to what is probably his best distance, and if the class can hold, I love his chances to hit the board at a price.
The (9)Senor Big doesn't give me any real reason to take a second look. He looks to be at the right level, but I think there's too much in this particular field. I don't expect him to enjoy the outside post much, and think that this will be more about building experience. I'll be interested to see him later in the summer in lifetime races 7 and 8.
MyPlays:
#8 ACROSS THE BOARD
TRI BOX: 1,4,5,8
Race 3 - Claiming - $10K (Turf Mile)
(And hardest race on the card to handicap...IMO)
Lindy Wade gets a 1st time mount on the (1)Hollywood Script, who has always failed to put up two solid races back to back. Bad news coming off a win his last time out, albeit against a decent field, and while posting a decent speed rating. It's a surface and distance combo that should work, but I'm wary of a potential soft turf course holding a lot of moisture, paired with a horse that has a tendency to "tire" and "fade" in far too many outings.
Short and Sweet... I don't know what about (2)Steel Vice says that he wants a mile, and moreover, that he wants that mile to be on turf. Monarchos bloodlines be damned - this is a proven, $7.5K dirt claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs. Why not just keep him there and make a few bucks along the way?
I would give a look at (3)Too Much Duck if the weather called for the race to be moved to the main track, but absent that, I don't see a lot here. He's proven knocking off $3.5K - $5K claimers in San Antonio and Houston on the dirt, but there are proven turf horses here that can perform at a different level.
The (4)Fizzano is another instance of where we're going to to agree to disagree today. He has the Asmussen - Mora connection that got him the morning line odds, and some decent wins in 2014 and speed figures to provide some supporting documentation. Unfortunately, I place a lot of weight in trends... and that's why I almost want to throw this horse out all together. The connections have been lowering the expectations for this horse for a year now, hoping to return to early-mid 2014 form, but it hasn't happened. He's placed better in successive races, but all the while, the stakes have been lowered and he has still failed to finish in the money. Asmussen has gone through 5 different jock's in each of the last 5 races with no success, and is hoping a return to Mora can help him to at least hit the board. It would be an enormous achievement for...wait, what am I talking about? No it wouldn't... It's a $10K claimer... play him or don't. Sheesh.
The (5)Wilcox has been routinely and handily beaten by others on this card and in this field. There is no trend to suggest that anything changes here. We can also throw out the (6)Wild Slew. This horse simply does not want the distance. When terms like "tiring, weakened, and gave way" accompany finishes like 7th, 8th, and 9th in 2015...move on. While we're at it, I can't find anything about (7)Bendanie that looks attractive. But for some reason, kicking this horse out scares me. Call it a gut feeling. Either the (4) or the (7) is going to show up... and ruin some otherwise pefectly good tickets.
I do, however, have reason to play the (8)Signature Event. I'm going to be all over the Keene owned and Stuart trained horses for this entire meet. Mark it down. This is a jump in class, but he appears ready. There is good past performance to point to on the turf at Lone Star, and he has had some of the best jock's on him of late. If CJ is up to the task on Saturday, this horse is in play... big time.
The (9)Figaro has tested the waters at the $25K-&35K level, but has probably found his spot in the $10k-$15K claimer range, when you couple it with his past mile turf success at Lone Star. Not a good 2015 debut, but the drop in class will help. Don't count this colt out after a 2+ month layoff.
Sporting Holiday(10) is a 'connections-only' play in my opinion. This horse hasn't races in a year and a half, but Quincy Hamilton IS HIS GUY. If anyone is going to shock the board, it's this combo.
So we follow that up with (11)Tiz Gianni. Simply put, One-Turf-Mile is the surface and distance for this 7-yr-old son of Giacomo. Not a mile and one foot, not a mile and one inch. One mile. Throw out the last race and expect this horse to claim a major award if new jockey Ivan Arellano can use him efficiently. This looks to be the appropriate class level, and he'll welcome all comers who are looking for something to prove.
And now for the last horse in the field, and with respectable odds, no less. (12)B'wanagoldmine is definitely racing at his level on Saturday, and he loves the turf at Lone Star (9/12 in the money lifetime). It does trouble me that 3 others in this field have beaten him straight up 5x over the past year, and he has failed to return the favor. He's in the mix, but not a "WIN" bet, despite the odds and connections.
*This was a very challenging race to handicap, 1st Saturday card of the Lone Star meet, Big field, Turf with potentially bad weather. I would not recommend multi-race inclusions here, unless you are willing to go a bit deep.
MyPlays:
I don't know how to separate the the back half of this field, but I believe the board will feature it almost exclusively. Give me the #11 and the #8 or #10 to beat out the #4 and possibly the #12. Just have fun with this one. Pick one of the 5 ACROSS THE BOARD and ride it out, or get down on some cheap SUPERFECTA BOXES
Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming - $15K (6 Furlongs - Dirt)
(1)Home Time has had some success at this level, and the distance is correct, but he has not recovered his 2014 form in 2015. I want to see something better than a couple of 4th place finishes against 'lesser thans', (and most recently an 8th) before I back him to hit the board.
(2)Kitty Blonde. I don't get the distance they chose for this horse's next race. It's a Broberg trainee, and will get some mutual love on that alone, but this seems like a Hail Mary to me. In recent outings, he has not shown the ability to be in the lead (or even in the money) at this distance - and maybe that's meaningless, but maybe it's not. He has two wins in recent memory, both at a mile, and both at the $7.5K - $10K level. Nothing is trending toward success here.
(3)Awesome J T is on somewhat of a roller-coaster ride. On the plus side, he's getting back-to-back mounts by one of my favorite jockeys for Lone Star this meet - David Cabrera. On the minus side, he's only hit the board once at Lone Star, and that was against $6.25K claimers. On the plus side, he's 2/4 in the money with one win against similar company in 2015. I'm going with the pluses here. Like the odds I''ll probably get for this entry in this spot.
While (4)Witt's Tax Day lacks the speed figures (though they are improving) to be a contender here, he seems to be placed at the correct level and may have a shot to hit the board. One thing that concerns me is the inordinate amount of trouble he has had out of the gate at Lone Star... and only at Lone Star. This is not a 'horse for the course,' and not a true threat to win on Saturday.
The (5) Pagador doesn't give me much to go on. It's the 6-yr-old's 1st start of the year, and he has not had any success at this level. In contrast, the (6)Salt Lake Flyer has shown previous success at the level and on the Lone Star dirt in particular. This is a horse that will consistently move forward in the field from post to post, and I would not be surprised at a repeat of his past time out - a win at the same level and distance, sporting a 93 Equibase speed figure.
If you want to take a shot on a horse with something to prove, the (7)Special Tree is yours to have. He's coming off of three straight wins at the $5K claiming level in Houston and San Antonio, but makes a huge jump in class here, and needs the best efforts of Joe Offolter and Gerardo Mora to stick the landing. Maybe Offolter knows something... or maybe he is what he is.
The (8)Bringitonhomecapt. has shown some fight in the stretch against similar company, and definitely has the class and performance history to warrant a "Win" bet here. We'll just have to see how he takes to the dirt at Lone Star. Five furlongs and turf seem to be a pretty solid combo for the 6-yr-old... at dirt and six furlongs, he has a victory over $4K claimers in Houston in February, and a 7th place effort at the $21K level, finishing 8 1/2 lengths behind (3)Awesome J T in January.
MyPlays:
#3 ACROSS THE BOARD
TRI WHEEL 3,8 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,6,7,8
TRI / SUPER BOX 3,6,7,8
Race 5 - Wayne Hanks Memorial Stakes - $50K (6 1/2 Furlongs - Dirt)
Lasting Bubbles - Early Fantasy; Early Fantasy - Lasting Bubbles. This one's shaping up to be pretty chalky. I think the best value stands to be made with an Exacta and Tri-Wheel betting approach. Lasting Bubbles(1) is the class of the field. She has great speed figures in a slew of well-rated races, has been dominate at Lone Star Park, and won't scoff at the jockey change to Iram Diego.
The (2)Infectious and the (3)Afoolsbrokenheart have a pretty decent shot to hit the board, but the latter of which's fate will be based on how she responds to the field in a significant class jump. She's a horse with great connections, but hasn't faced the pace or posted the speed figures it will likely take to hit the wire without a few others in front of her. Infectious(2) has equally good connections, and more experience at the level. Class and speed are still a concern though, and I suspect a minor award.
The (4)Scooter's Choice didn't impress me as much as she did the odds-makers. She looks to have desperately needed the layoff that was afforded her following the turn she took for the worse in June and July of last year. If form holds, her best shot may be in her first race back after the long layoff. She will be part of the early speed, but I don't think she wants the extra football field she'll have to run this time out.
The (5)Early Fantasy either starts, or rounds out the Exacta. Another who will benefit from the 7 week layoff, and I'm willing to throw out the last race at 5 1/2 furlongs. Cabrera was able to use the rail to slip past the (1)Lasting Bubbles, and the (6)Platinum Song in a similar race, two back in Houston. He drew the rail that day, and the 5-hole Saturday...I don't think that's much of a factor in this 6-horse field.
The (6)Platinum Song rounds out the field, which she might do in all actuality on Saturday. It looks as though her best days were as a 2-3 year old, and that she has been searching for an appropriate level and appropriate races ever since. She had early success under Danny Pish... and Bernard and Mayfield have done well at lower levels since, but the proof is in the pudding. Last time out she was "empty" down the stretch H2H against the (1)Lasting Bubbles and the (5)Early Fantasy. That race was at 6 furlongs, this one stretches out to 6 1/2.
MyPlays:
EX BOX 1-5
TRI WHEEL 1,5 / 1,5 / 2,3,6
