We hit the Trifecta, Superfecta, and Pick-3 for the second Triple Crown race in a row.
That is all.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
Friday, May 1, 2015
Kentucky Derby Preview 2015 - Just the trip.
This year we'll pay homage to the NCAA selection committee and present this with a first-out, last-out -- last-in, first-in approach. Clear as mud? Four groups of five - from worst to first. Good luck.
*NOTE* With the scratch of #7 El Kabeir, #11 Stanford, and #12 International Star, the inner and outer stalls will be vacated. ENTRY NUMBERS WILL NOT CHANGE. The also eligible Frammento will don the #21 saddle cloth and be installed at gate #19. The second also eligible horse, Tale of Verve has scratched as well. The field stands at 18.
First 5 out:
SCRATCH*#11) Stanford: I can make a great case for this horse if he’s running in a G3 at Lone Star Park, but it’s really tough to have confidence in him in this spot. The son of Malibu Moon (Orb), and grandson of Distorted Humor was great in the Louisiana Derby, where he ran his first race clear of any trouble. He fought down the stretch and posted a near double-digit speed figure increase with the clean trip. The more I watch his races, the more I figure him on his best day to be the Firing Line of the junior circuit. Unfortunately, Firing Line himself, and the rest of the senior circuit are in this field. Is he on the rise? I suppose. But to this point, his most recent race was the exception, not the rule. (*Scratch – replaced by ‘also eligible’ Frammento who will wear the #21 saddle cloth – no bid)
#1) Ocho Ocho Ocho: This was one of my 1st five out even before the post draw, which ultimately sealed his fate. He has some speed, but he doesn’t handle trouble well, especially early – and that’s all he going to find here. When the field collapses to the rail before the 1st quarter pole, he’ll likely get sucked up and have trouble responding. If he does manage to get the jump on the two Pletcher horses to his outside and head up the field through the first quarter, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll have anything left for the last quarter.
#17) Mr. Z: The second of three of Malibu Moon’s progeny left in the field, and the one most likely to have a *DNF next to his name when the final results are posted. (stolen line that I can’t even remember the origination of now – but one that I couldn’t have agreed with more.) Respect all of those 2’s and 3’s in his past performances to your own peril, there are a lot of horses who will steal those spots in this field. It’s just not going to set up for him to pick up the garbage that’s left like he has done over the past year. Need more convincing? The last two races, he was stretched out to 1 1/8 miles at which point he was described as “stopping” and finishing 9th in February and then “flattening out” for a near double-digit length 3rd last month. On Saturday, he gets an additional 3/16 of a mile thrown at him.
#13) Itsaknockout: All I really see here is an out-classed mile claimer. His connections shrewdly accrued points at Gulfstream to make sure that he could be entered in the field to promote the Mayweather – Pacquiao fight. Say it’s a coincidence that became a fit as the spring progressed – but I’m not buying it. At his core, he’s just a slower horse who is out of his depth here.
#14) Keen Ice: I do not know why this horse is in this race. I guess there is a scenario where he could pick up some late pieces, but not in the way that say, Danzig Moon will be able to.
Last 5 out:
#4) Tencendur: I would’ve much rather seen Far From Over, the horse who put him away twice at Aqueduct, than I would Tencendur. Most are in agreement that he ran the race of his life to finish second at the Wood last month, but speed figure-wise, it wasn’t much different than the Gotham, and the pace was even a bit slower (allowing for the extra 1/16, and not suggesting that the slower pace helped him). The more I look at his consistently average figures and how those Aqueduct fields cross reference with other tracks this spring, the more dislike the Wood and Gotham fields as a whole – races that he finished 2nd and 5th in, respectively.
#5) Danzig Moon: The final Malibu Moon colt in the field, making it a perfect 100% who will fail to hit the board. If you look at his past performances, you’ll see a horse that can come up through the field and pick off others who are tiring or all-out throwing in the towel. But he’s not a horse that is going to be on or near the lead at any point in this race. Look for some late ground coverage to get him out of the bottom 5 and into the second 5, but he’ll be a slower horse here than he was at the Bluegrass – and that won’t cut it.
SCRATCH*#7) El Kabeir: This one scares me a little bit, but ultimately I don’t see him being part of the final picture. Go five races back, last before the lay-off, and you’ll find his only start at Churchill – a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with guess who in the irons. It took everything he had to pull off the wire-to-wire win over International Star and Lord Nelson (among others) that day, but a wire-to-wire scenario here doesn’t seem likely when you couple the distance with the early speed in this field. I do expect Borel to angle over, and I do expect him to make me legitimately nervous for a couple of furlongs. I just don’t think he has enough horse down the stretch, no matter what kind of deal Calvin has made with the devil at Churchill.
#20) Far Right: One thing is for sure, if you’re having trouble finding Far Right on the track, look for the turquoise and gold silks of Mr. Z. In their last four starts, the two have finished within 4 lengths to the good or bad of each other, with Far Right coming out ahead in three of the four. He’ll look to fold in behind the field with Upstart rather than trying to keep up with American Pharoah as he angles across the front right out of the gate. And speaking of American Pharoah, I think he managed to show the spring stakes field at Oaklawn for what it really is in the Arkansas Derby. An impressive victory, yes; but I think the field (Far Right among them) will prove to be substandard.
#16) War Story: So it’s no secret that the Louisiana circuit is getting slammed this spring. International Star getting disrespected because of the soft competition, and War Story chief among that group. I was really focused on that start he had last fall at Churchill – going 5-6 wide on the far turn and coming home impressively, and I wanted to make him my Giacomo for several days. He likes to sit back, and has a stretch run in him, but the obvious is there – if he can’t figure it out against International Star in Louisiana, how does it all come together in Kentucky? I think he’ll see the fastest fractions yet, which is good, but I don’t see this setting up anywhere near the :45 flat half-mile pace that Giacomo saw in ’05. I’ll play him across the board for a few shekels, but after one last look, had to pull him from my exotics.
Last 5 in:
#9) Bolo: Carla Gaines seems pretty confident about her entry, despite the criticism she’s received for continuing to race him off of the turf. He’s been held out wide and fought to hang on for relatively distant 3rds his last two times out on dirt at Santa Anita, albeit behind Dortmund who was the fraction setter in both. The place horses in each race, Prospect Park and One Lucky Dane, are
better quality than several in this field in my opinion, and that gives me pause from throwing him out entirely. He’ll be able to make up some ground, and has shown that he has pretty good speed figures in him when racing among the best in California this spring. And to be clear, I’m putting California and Florida shippers above New York and Louisiana shippers this year. Oaklawn is the wild card in my opinion because, well, American Pharoah. But there’s also something to be said for a trainer with that look in their eye, and after seeing Carla talk about her horse a couple of times this week, I’m convinced she has it. The question is, does that simply mean he’s ready to give his best effort, or that she feels his best effort is enough to win. I’m not anywhere close to convinced about the latter.
#19) Upstart: He shows a predisposition for finding traffic & trouble, and for working his way through the field the hard way. He will have the opportunity to do both on Saturday. I’ve given this horse a bunch of looks, and there are more bullet points than I know what to do with. Never doing worse than 3rd is promising, past fields have been arguably solid, up and down (alternating) speed figures are troubling, as is the post draw. He’s my ultimate bubble horse, and he could just as easily crack the top 5 as he could fall out of the top 10. You look at the names finishing around him on his resume, and it makes him really hard to leave out. My prediction is that I will cut and paste him higher up on the list before I am finished writing this.
#3) Materiality: I guess this is as good of a place as any to throw in the first of the three remaining Pletcher entries. (Stanford being the 4th before the scratch – talk about a volume shooter.) First and foremost, the curse. He didn’t race at the age of two, and we all know that you have to go back over 100 years, and blah, blah, blah…but in this case, we’re talking about 11 days making the difference. Yes he’s inexperienced, but he’s also shown that all he does is exactly what is asked of him. If you want to slap a third negative on him (to add to the Pletcher/Derby record + no races at 2yo angle), then watch the Florida Derby. It’s a win against a solid contender in Upstart, but those were tired, loping horses down the stretch. I’ll give him that it was a quick turnaround from the previous race, and this time he’ll have had closer to 6 weeks off, but he’s going to need to have re-charged his batteries big time, and might just prove to be a little green when it comes down to it. He also loses the only rider he has known (Johnny Velazquez) to stable-mate Carpe Diem. Not a deal-breaker, but could be meaningful to such a lightly-raced colt.
SCRATCH*#12) International Star:
Q: How does the Derby Trial points leader open as a 20-1 co-8th choice?
A: There are two reasons: #1- He didn’t leave Louisiana this spring, and nobody came to him &
#2- 2014 happened.
International Star was able to sock away a ton of points beating what has been perceived as pretty soft company at Fair Grounds this spring, and when you look at his 2014, it should give you tremendous pause. As recently as October he was finishing 9th on the turf at Santa Anita, concluding a back-and-forth sequence between turf and dirt that included all 6 races last year. He finally settled on dirt for good (we think) in his last race of the year at Churchill. However, he ended up missing the board entirely, 6 lengths behind winner El Kabeir. In the same way I mentioned moving Upstart up the list before all is said and done, I can see myself moving this horse down.
#15) Frosted: Here’s my exception to a couple of points I’ve made about New York and some of the previous fields. I think that Frosted has all the potential in the world to figure into this race in the later stages, and am encouraged by the fact that he made it down to Florida for the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. I’m also encouraged by the turnaround at Aqueduct after his throat procedure, despite the fact that the caliber of horses he beat was lacking in my opinion. I will also say that the move from the 15 stall (1st auxiliary gate) to the 14 stall (last standard gate) is not a positive in my opinion. He’s going to lose a little bit of space to work with, but it may be a non-factor with a horse like Keen Ice to his inside. His speed figures are also a bit suspect, and I’m not a fan of the Godolphin / Kiaran McLaughlin connections. That being said, this is going to be the race where we find out who this horse really is. And to be honest, I don’t want to be on the wrong side of it. This is the horse that I wanted to leave out early on, but he’s just sitting there sticking me in my side, threatening to ruin a big ticket. There’s one in every race, and he’s my one.
First 5 in:
#6) Mubtaahij: Hands down the greatest unknown of the race, and another horse that I am more afraid of being on the wrong side of than I am making room for on a ticket. You don’t have to dig too deep for the negatives: his last win is the UEA -- and UEA winners are 0-10 lifetime when shipping for the Derby. His best races are against the equivalent of Grade2-3 company in the US, which puts him somewhere in the middle of this pack. He had to travel 8,000 miles & US customs won’t even let his team bring his regular feed into the country. The list goes on. But there are also some positives, the first of which is that the race distance will not be an issue. There will be no wall for this horse to hit, and he will gallop out of a mile and a quarter with a smile on his face. He’s only been beaten once out of five on dirt, and that by a head to a rival that he returned the favor to, going away by 8 lengths last time out. There’s a trainer angle here as well. Mike de Kock is about as respected as they come in the international thoroughbred community. He’s known as a shipping expert, and for picking his spots in the US. He doesn’t ship to compete, he ships to win. All reports from Arlington Park (where de Kock has previously shipped and won the Arlington Millions) are that Mubtaajih arrived no worse for the wear, and has even seemed particularly alert and up for his works these past two weeks.
#2) Carpe Diem: This horse may make or break himself in the gate. Drawing the 2-hole is bad enough based on its location. But when you combine it with the extended amount of time that horse has wait while others load, you’ve got the makings of a rough minute or two - especially for a horse that has a reputation for being temperamental and fractious around the gate. He’s going to have to dig in to get out of there quickly, and then budget better than most for those last two furlongs. I know that that is stating the obvious. My point is more about how difficult it might be for him if he is stressed and expending tremendous amounts of energy in the paddock, and then compounding matters in the stall. Al that being said, if everything goes according to plan at the start, and he even gets the smallest bit of cooperation from his Pletcher brethren to the right, this horse will be a big contender coming down the stretch. The distance and class are in no way an issue, and he can be put together a stalking trip with the best in the world. If American Pharoah and Dortmund are 1a, on an average day, this horse is 1b.
#10) Firing Line: So I say what I just said about Carpe Diem, and then place Firing Line right ahead of him. Honestly, it’s nothing more than that little bit of uncertainty with Carpe Diem, and I think that very little separates the two horses. If you’re going to watch his last three out, appreciate what basically amounted to two head-bobs with Dortmund as much as you appreciate the romp at the Sunland. This is a very impressive horse who has posted some wicked speed figures, and is looking for a big score. I think he’ll like the change of scenery, and I love him having Gary Stevens in the irons again and a 6-week rest.
#8) Dortmund & #18) American Pharoah:
If you’ve read this far, you’ve gotten the information you were looking for, or have decided to move on and find it elsewhere. I don’t need to tell you that these are the two favorites or why. And I’m not going to try to separate them. I will say that I am not concerned with Pharoah’s foot, post position, or the spelling of his name for that matter. I think both have the tactical speed to get where they need to be early, and despite what some hard-core bloodline and progeny analysts will tell you, the physical and mental makeup to be there late. It’s just the trip, man. All about the trip.
*NOTE* With the scratch of #7 El Kabeir, #11 Stanford, and #12 International Star, the inner and outer stalls will be vacated. ENTRY NUMBERS WILL NOT CHANGE. The also eligible Frammento will don the #21 saddle cloth and be installed at gate #19. The second also eligible horse, Tale of Verve has scratched as well. The field stands at 18.
First 5 out:
SCRATCH*#11) Stanford: I can make a great case for this horse if he’s running in a G3 at Lone Star Park, but it’s really tough to have confidence in him in this spot. The son of Malibu Moon (Orb), and grandson of Distorted Humor was great in the Louisiana Derby, where he ran his first race clear of any trouble. He fought down the stretch and posted a near double-digit speed figure increase with the clean trip. The more I watch his races, the more I figure him on his best day to be the Firing Line of the junior circuit. Unfortunately, Firing Line himself, and the rest of the senior circuit are in this field. Is he on the rise? I suppose. But to this point, his most recent race was the exception, not the rule. (*Scratch – replaced by ‘also eligible’ Frammento who will wear the #21 saddle cloth – no bid)
#1) Ocho Ocho Ocho: This was one of my 1st five out even before the post draw, which ultimately sealed his fate. He has some speed, but he doesn’t handle trouble well, especially early – and that’s all he going to find here. When the field collapses to the rail before the 1st quarter pole, he’ll likely get sucked up and have trouble responding. If he does manage to get the jump on the two Pletcher horses to his outside and head up the field through the first quarter, there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll have anything left for the last quarter.
#17) Mr. Z: The second of three of Malibu Moon’s progeny left in the field, and the one most likely to have a *DNF next to his name when the final results are posted. (stolen line that I can’t even remember the origination of now – but one that I couldn’t have agreed with more.) Respect all of those 2’s and 3’s in his past performances to your own peril, there are a lot of horses who will steal those spots in this field. It’s just not going to set up for him to pick up the garbage that’s left like he has done over the past year. Need more convincing? The last two races, he was stretched out to 1 1/8 miles at which point he was described as “stopping” and finishing 9th in February and then “flattening out” for a near double-digit length 3rd last month. On Saturday, he gets an additional 3/16 of a mile thrown at him.
#13) Itsaknockout: All I really see here is an out-classed mile claimer. His connections shrewdly accrued points at Gulfstream to make sure that he could be entered in the field to promote the Mayweather – Pacquiao fight. Say it’s a coincidence that became a fit as the spring progressed – but I’m not buying it. At his core, he’s just a slower horse who is out of his depth here.
#14) Keen Ice: I do not know why this horse is in this race. I guess there is a scenario where he could pick up some late pieces, but not in the way that say, Danzig Moon will be able to.
Last 5 out:
#4) Tencendur: I would’ve much rather seen Far From Over, the horse who put him away twice at Aqueduct, than I would Tencendur. Most are in agreement that he ran the race of his life to finish second at the Wood last month, but speed figure-wise, it wasn’t much different than the Gotham, and the pace was even a bit slower (allowing for the extra 1/16, and not suggesting that the slower pace helped him). The more I look at his consistently average figures and how those Aqueduct fields cross reference with other tracks this spring, the more dislike the Wood and Gotham fields as a whole – races that he finished 2nd and 5th in, respectively.
#5) Danzig Moon: The final Malibu Moon colt in the field, making it a perfect 100% who will fail to hit the board. If you look at his past performances, you’ll see a horse that can come up through the field and pick off others who are tiring or all-out throwing in the towel. But he’s not a horse that is going to be on or near the lead at any point in this race. Look for some late ground coverage to get him out of the bottom 5 and into the second 5, but he’ll be a slower horse here than he was at the Bluegrass – and that won’t cut it.
SCRATCH*#7) El Kabeir: This one scares me a little bit, but ultimately I don’t see him being part of the final picture. Go five races back, last before the lay-off, and you’ll find his only start at Churchill – a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with guess who in the irons. It took everything he had to pull off the wire-to-wire win over International Star and Lord Nelson (among others) that day, but a wire-to-wire scenario here doesn’t seem likely when you couple the distance with the early speed in this field. I do expect Borel to angle over, and I do expect him to make me legitimately nervous for a couple of furlongs. I just don’t think he has enough horse down the stretch, no matter what kind of deal Calvin has made with the devil at Churchill.
#20) Far Right: One thing is for sure, if you’re having trouble finding Far Right on the track, look for the turquoise and gold silks of Mr. Z. In their last four starts, the two have finished within 4 lengths to the good or bad of each other, with Far Right coming out ahead in three of the four. He’ll look to fold in behind the field with Upstart rather than trying to keep up with American Pharoah as he angles across the front right out of the gate. And speaking of American Pharoah, I think he managed to show the spring stakes field at Oaklawn for what it really is in the Arkansas Derby. An impressive victory, yes; but I think the field (Far Right among them) will prove to be substandard.
#16) War Story: So it’s no secret that the Louisiana circuit is getting slammed this spring. International Star getting disrespected because of the soft competition, and War Story chief among that group. I was really focused on that start he had last fall at Churchill – going 5-6 wide on the far turn and coming home impressively, and I wanted to make him my Giacomo for several days. He likes to sit back, and has a stretch run in him, but the obvious is there – if he can’t figure it out against International Star in Louisiana, how does it all come together in Kentucky? I think he’ll see the fastest fractions yet, which is good, but I don’t see this setting up anywhere near the :45 flat half-mile pace that Giacomo saw in ’05. I’ll play him across the board for a few shekels, but after one last look, had to pull him from my exotics.
Last 5 in:
#9) Bolo: Carla Gaines seems pretty confident about her entry, despite the criticism she’s received for continuing to race him off of the turf. He’s been held out wide and fought to hang on for relatively distant 3rds his last two times out on dirt at Santa Anita, albeit behind Dortmund who was the fraction setter in both. The place horses in each race, Prospect Park and One Lucky Dane, are
better quality than several in this field in my opinion, and that gives me pause from throwing him out entirely. He’ll be able to make up some ground, and has shown that he has pretty good speed figures in him when racing among the best in California this spring. And to be clear, I’m putting California and Florida shippers above New York and Louisiana shippers this year. Oaklawn is the wild card in my opinion because, well, American Pharoah. But there’s also something to be said for a trainer with that look in their eye, and after seeing Carla talk about her horse a couple of times this week, I’m convinced she has it. The question is, does that simply mean he’s ready to give his best effort, or that she feels his best effort is enough to win. I’m not anywhere close to convinced about the latter.
#19) Upstart: He shows a predisposition for finding traffic & trouble, and for working his way through the field the hard way. He will have the opportunity to do both on Saturday. I’ve given this horse a bunch of looks, and there are more bullet points than I know what to do with. Never doing worse than 3rd is promising, past fields have been arguably solid, up and down (alternating) speed figures are troubling, as is the post draw. He’s my ultimate bubble horse, and he could just as easily crack the top 5 as he could fall out of the top 10. You look at the names finishing around him on his resume, and it makes him really hard to leave out. My prediction is that I will cut and paste him higher up on the list before I am finished writing this.
#3) Materiality: I guess this is as good of a place as any to throw in the first of the three remaining Pletcher entries. (Stanford being the 4th before the scratch – talk about a volume shooter.) First and foremost, the curse. He didn’t race at the age of two, and we all know that you have to go back over 100 years, and blah, blah, blah…but in this case, we’re talking about 11 days making the difference. Yes he’s inexperienced, but he’s also shown that all he does is exactly what is asked of him. If you want to slap a third negative on him (to add to the Pletcher/Derby record + no races at 2yo angle), then watch the Florida Derby. It’s a win against a solid contender in Upstart, but those were tired, loping horses down the stretch. I’ll give him that it was a quick turnaround from the previous race, and this time he’ll have had closer to 6 weeks off, but he’s going to need to have re-charged his batteries big time, and might just prove to be a little green when it comes down to it. He also loses the only rider he has known (Johnny Velazquez) to stable-mate Carpe Diem. Not a deal-breaker, but could be meaningful to such a lightly-raced colt.
SCRATCH*#12) International Star:
Q: How does the Derby Trial points leader open as a 20-1 co-8th choice?
A: There are two reasons: #1- He didn’t leave Louisiana this spring, and nobody came to him &
#2- 2014 happened.
International Star was able to sock away a ton of points beating what has been perceived as pretty soft company at Fair Grounds this spring, and when you look at his 2014, it should give you tremendous pause. As recently as October he was finishing 9th on the turf at Santa Anita, concluding a back-and-forth sequence between turf and dirt that included all 6 races last year. He finally settled on dirt for good (we think) in his last race of the year at Churchill. However, he ended up missing the board entirely, 6 lengths behind winner El Kabeir. In the same way I mentioned moving Upstart up the list before all is said and done, I can see myself moving this horse down.
#15) Frosted: Here’s my exception to a couple of points I’ve made about New York and some of the previous fields. I think that Frosted has all the potential in the world to figure into this race in the later stages, and am encouraged by the fact that he made it down to Florida for the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth. I’m also encouraged by the turnaround at Aqueduct after his throat procedure, despite the fact that the caliber of horses he beat was lacking in my opinion. I will also say that the move from the 15 stall (1st auxiliary gate) to the 14 stall (last standard gate) is not a positive in my opinion. He’s going to lose a little bit of space to work with, but it may be a non-factor with a horse like Keen Ice to his inside. His speed figures are also a bit suspect, and I’m not a fan of the Godolphin / Kiaran McLaughlin connections. That being said, this is going to be the race where we find out who this horse really is. And to be honest, I don’t want to be on the wrong side of it. This is the horse that I wanted to leave out early on, but he’s just sitting there sticking me in my side, threatening to ruin a big ticket. There’s one in every race, and he’s my one.
First 5 in:
#6) Mubtaahij: Hands down the greatest unknown of the race, and another horse that I am more afraid of being on the wrong side of than I am making room for on a ticket. You don’t have to dig too deep for the negatives: his last win is the UEA -- and UEA winners are 0-10 lifetime when shipping for the Derby. His best races are against the equivalent of Grade2-3 company in the US, which puts him somewhere in the middle of this pack. He had to travel 8,000 miles & US customs won’t even let his team bring his regular feed into the country. The list goes on. But there are also some positives, the first of which is that the race distance will not be an issue. There will be no wall for this horse to hit, and he will gallop out of a mile and a quarter with a smile on his face. He’s only been beaten once out of five on dirt, and that by a head to a rival that he returned the favor to, going away by 8 lengths last time out. There’s a trainer angle here as well. Mike de Kock is about as respected as they come in the international thoroughbred community. He’s known as a shipping expert, and for picking his spots in the US. He doesn’t ship to compete, he ships to win. All reports from Arlington Park (where de Kock has previously shipped and won the Arlington Millions) are that Mubtaajih arrived no worse for the wear, and has even seemed particularly alert and up for his works these past two weeks.
#2) Carpe Diem: This horse may make or break himself in the gate. Drawing the 2-hole is bad enough based on its location. But when you combine it with the extended amount of time that horse has wait while others load, you’ve got the makings of a rough minute or two - especially for a horse that has a reputation for being temperamental and fractious around the gate. He’s going to have to dig in to get out of there quickly, and then budget better than most for those last two furlongs. I know that that is stating the obvious. My point is more about how difficult it might be for him if he is stressed and expending tremendous amounts of energy in the paddock, and then compounding matters in the stall. Al that being said, if everything goes according to plan at the start, and he even gets the smallest bit of cooperation from his Pletcher brethren to the right, this horse will be a big contender coming down the stretch. The distance and class are in no way an issue, and he can be put together a stalking trip with the best in the world. If American Pharoah and Dortmund are 1a, on an average day, this horse is 1b.
#10) Firing Line: So I say what I just said about Carpe Diem, and then place Firing Line right ahead of him. Honestly, it’s nothing more than that little bit of uncertainty with Carpe Diem, and I think that very little separates the two horses. If you’re going to watch his last three out, appreciate what basically amounted to two head-bobs with Dortmund as much as you appreciate the romp at the Sunland. This is a very impressive horse who has posted some wicked speed figures, and is looking for a big score. I think he’ll like the change of scenery, and I love him having Gary Stevens in the irons again and a 6-week rest.
#8) Dortmund & #18) American Pharoah:
If you’ve read this far, you’ve gotten the information you were looking for, or have decided to move on and find it elsewhere. I don’t need to tell you that these are the two favorites or why. And I’m not going to try to separate them. I will say that I am not concerned with Pharoah’s foot, post position, or the spelling of his name for that matter. I think both have the tactical speed to get where they need to be early, and despite what some hard-core bloodline and progeny analysts will tell you, the physical and mental makeup to be there late. It’s just the trip, man. All about the trip.
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