2012 Kentucky Derby Field

I've received several messages about the Kentucky Derby this year, so instead of just throwing up numbers "day of", I'll relay my thought process this year and let you decide what to do "day of." The post-position draw yesterday sorted a lot of things out, and complicated a few others. Off the cuff, horrible news for Daddy Long Legs (1) and Optimizer (2), the latter of which may have had a puncher's chance to hit the board with a good trip from an outside post. Also bad news for Liaison (20), who will be left with more ground to make up than his past performances would lead me to believe he is capable of tackling. The best post news landed in the lap of undefeated Gemologist (15) and Hansen (14), but we'll get to them in a minute.

With a twenty horse field, the only way I can begin to wrap my head around getting to a Final Four (which is my ultimate goal in this race), is to eliminate as many horses as I can first. So that being said, let's just go ahead and add Rousing Sermon (7), Sabercat (18), and the pace-setting Trinniberg (9) to the trash heap. I tried to envision a scenario where Trinniberg held on long enough to hit the board, or complete a super, but I think he is completely swallowed up before the end of the final turn. The next three horses I can eliminate partly based on post position, but more so based on recent past performances against similar or identical company. Alpha (11) is a tough one to eliminate this early on, but I think I've seen his best in the Wood Memorial. I don't think he can replicate that game second to Gemologist (15), but even if he can, it won't be enough. Additionally, he has a history of gate trouble, and will load 1st in stall 11...that's a long time to wait for a horse that's shown he doesn't want to be there in the first place. Much easier for me to discard are El Padrino (16) who has shown up against lesser fields, but has been beat convincingly by horses from this field; and Done Talking (17), who at 50-1, is not likely to be the first horse ever to win the Derby from the 17-hole.

Alright, straight to another point... success on the poly-tracks, especially in California (I'm looking at you Santa Anita) does less and less for me every year. I'll Have Another (19) looked great in the S.A. Derby, but even the west coast blowhards are tapping the breaks on him right now, and I don't see his style translating to 1 1/4 on dirt. On a side note, the 19-hole is the only other slot that has never produced a Derby winner. On the flip side, Prospective (12) has done most of his racing east of the Mississippi, but has shown that he belongs exclusively in Grade-II and Grade-III company. Coming off a 6th place finish at the Bluegrass, his only other race against Grade-I company was last year...in the Juvenile...at Churchill...against many of these same horses...where he finished 13th.

Now's where it starts to get tough. Dullahan (5) sits right in the middle of three horses that are going to have plenty to say about the outcome of this race. He rallied in the Blue Grass, and gave me flashbacks to Stately Victor. I bit on that once, I'm not biting again. The horse looked awful after the race was over, and though he'll get plenty of support at the window, I can't help seeing Stately Victor all over again. You have to eliminate horses somehow, but this one admittedly stings, and is the one I feel is almost certain to come back and bite me.

Okay, so eight horses left, and all 8 have a legitimate shot at this thing. That's not non-committal handicapper bulsh...it's just how it is this year. Ladies and Gentlemen, here are your contestants:

(3)Take Charge Indy, (4)Union Rags, (6)Bodemeister, (8) Creative Cause, (10) Daddy Nose Best, (13) Went The Day Well, (14) Hansen, and (15) Gemologist.

The big focus with this race every year (aside from the weather) is on the early speed, and how long it will hold. Hansen got a tremendous break coming out of the draw in the 14-hole. He'll be breaking well outside of the other two "speed" horses (Trinniberg and Bodemeister), and have about ten feet of empty air to his right coming out of the gate due to the break between stall 14 and 15. Bodemeister is in a little bit more precarious of a situation. He sits in the 6-hole, which in and of itself is not a bad thing...but it's inside of the other two aforementioned horses, which is. He needs a stalking trip from just off the pace, and he'll have to have the most perfect of perfect breaks, along with plenty of help from others to get lined up for it. It would have to be the perfect scenario for the morning line favorite, and despite that jaw-dropping performance in the Arkansas Derby, I just don't think he gets it. (#Stately Victor Fear). The one big oversight I see from handicappers so far has been limiting the "speed horse" conversation to those three horses. I think Take Charge Indy has just about as much of a claim as anybody else...and Calvin Borel...from the 3 hole. The Florida Derby Derby showed me a lot. It may not be the one to go from, but you have to pick something to key in on, and that's where I'm going. Youtube it when you get a chance. Seriously. If you add another 1/8 of a mile to that race, Borel probably ends up getting severely tested by Union Rags. What I don't know is if he has enough to hold him off the whole way. The trip could, at best, be described as complicated for Union Rags. I want to see that race finish out, and I think I'm going to get the chance.

Give me a first flight of Union Rags (4) and Take Charge Indy (3), fighting it out with Creative Cause (8) and Gemologist (15).

The only two horses that I have failed to touch on are Daddy Nose Best (10) and Went The Day Well (13). That is for one reason, and one reason only...they scare the crap out of me. Partially because I'm afraid they could blow up an otherwise great ticket, and partially because I entirely expect them to do just that. Group them with Dullahan if you're playing the exotics, because they are the same animal. Speaking of animal...Daddy Nose Best is the 'wise-guy' pick this year from many of the same folks that were on to Animal Kingdom in the weeks leading up to the Derby last year. He has been working out incredibly well, and has strong Dallas ties if that does anything for you. He was just another one who looked awful after his last outing in the Sunland Derby. He was completely spent against a soft field, and I don't think he wants the distance. Went The Day Well is an unknown commodity for me. He doesn't have the resume to pick through that some of the others do, and no one can claim to have an idea about what his ceiling may be. That being said, people whose opinion I value, value this horse.

So that's what I got. If you want bloodlines and track bias details, the pros have plenty of information out there. Most of it's free, and you can find stats or an angle that will support what your gut tells you if you look hard enough. For me, they have to pass the eyeball test first, and this is what I've seen with mine. Let's face it, this race is like no other. A field of 20 most often serves to be a clusterf**k of the highest order, and crazy things happen. I'd say above all else, go with your gut. It stings a lot worse seeing a horse that you really liked pay out, than it does to bet that same horse and have him come up short. We'll see how far apart Norm Hitzges and I are tomorrow, that's the real indicator!