Skip to Mylute

So a shorter entry today, lads. I've run this race around 100 times in my head over the last few days, and there are two variables that do not change for me. The first being that Rosie Napravnik hits the board this time. She'll be the closer that keeps closing; passing tiring horses while Orb gallops out a few lengths in front of her. The cameras will catch Tom Amoss giving her a genuine nod of approval while she pats her colt hard on the shoulder. The connections will be happy, and several exotic wagers will be completed... and that will be the day for Mylute on Saturday.

Call it burying the lead, but I tend to focus on Rosie and Mylute's finish when I'm picturing things, instead of Orb's. In the snapshot in my mind, they are in the middle of the frame and Orb has already crossed the line, well off to the right. I don't see anything getting in his way here. It's his race to lose, but he won't lose it. Variable number two unchanged.

I felt like a big chunk of the writers out there really wanted to make something out of him drawing the rail, but at the end of the day nobody really did, because nobody really could. The two to his immediate right - Goldencents and Titletown Five will get out quickly, and he'll be able to hold his line early, possibly even saving a little ground this time. He should really be able to pick his lane by about the 46 second mark, which is when I'm hoping Titletown Five will complete the first half mile.

Make no mistake, Titletown Five is nothing more than a rabbit here, and is completely outclassed. This isn't a speed horse of the Bodemeister or Shackleford ilk, he's an irresponsible entry from D. W. Lukas who is being counted on to set things up from a pace perspective for Lukas's other two entries, Oxbow and Will Take Charge. And honestly, it should work out for both of them. They'll be right there in the mix with Mylute. Those three might even complete the superfecta. But it will work out for Orb as well, and he'll be the key on top of that ticket.

There is some really fun information to look at from @TrakusRacing https://twitter.com/TrakusRacing . I'm not going to plagiarize it all here, but here is the one that I found the most interesting:

"In the Derby, Orb covered the third-most ground of any horse (just less than Frac Daddy and Vyjack, who covered the most). He went 80 feet more than second-placer Golden Soul, and 84 feet more than third home Revolutionary. There are many factors that go into a race’s results, but Orb’s extra ground coverage is remarkable considering the results. Overall, Orb traveled the equivalent of approximately 9 ½ lengths more than Revolutionary, and about 9 ¾ lengths more than Golden Soul, but actually beat both rivals by more than 2 ½ lengths."

For some reason I do worry a little about the shape of the track at Pimlico, the turns just aren't as wide and sweeping. It's got more of that paperclip feel that can force a serious, spread out slingshot off of the home turn, and cause horses to cover more ground and to lose momentum straightening out. Could be a non-factor, or I could be just imagining things; in either case, more ground isn't going to hurt him, and hopefully tiring horses who are forced to fan out won't either.

So what about Itsmyluckyday (9) , Govenor Charlie (8) (yes that's how it's spelled), and Departing (4)? Exactly. What about them? I'm glad that the good Governor isn't being bet down to disgusting odds. Wait...no I'm not! Get as much money as you can in there on him! Sell your house...sell your kids! Look, I'm not going to tell you he's not a good horse, because he is. And a lot of people will look to his past performances to make a case. I think all you have to do is look at his last race, the Sunland Derby win in New-Texico, and you'll see a confluence of unreliable data. Sure he won, sure he set a track record, but so did five other horses on the card that day. What's the old adage... fast horses don't set records, fast tracks do? Well even if I butchered the adage, the sentiment is sound. I don't have a lot of respect for his preps or the speed figures he posts. And people who want to debate Sunland trips to Gulfstream trips, well, you know how to get a hold of me.

Let's get a triple crown this summer. In two weeks, let's be having conversations about a well-rested Revolutionary coming back to face off against Orb, hopefully without having to dissect any horses who have (GB) or (FR) behind their names. But if you have to try to beat me, then pull for Rosie, pull for D. Wayne's strategy to work out exclusively for his barn, or pull for that nice-looking (2) horse... provided you don't mind seeing Rick Pitino celebrate on your television yet another time this year.

Good luck.