There is no telling what the weather will actually be doing
between now and 6:24 p.m. eastern daylight time this Saturday in Louisville. My
best information tells me that there is around a 50% chance that the track at
Churchill Downs will already be fairly wet, and another 50% chance that
precipitation will continue to fall at post time. Fifty percent and fifty
percent. That equates to a couple of coin flips in my estimation, and leads me
to the two reasons why I will not be getting bogged down in bloodlines to try
and determine whose “Muddah was a Mudder.” Reason number one, I am neither
smart enough to do so, nor do I have the attention span to delve into that
amount of research at this point. And reason number two, when you go back much
further than two generations, most of these horses appear to be more inbred
than 18th century British royalty. On an occasion like this, you’d
be clamoring to back a horse with Secretariat in his (or her) bloodlines,
right? Well, if you place a wager in this race, chances are that you will be.
There are fifteen of them.
There are plenty of sites out there that will give you a
rail-to-the-outside rundown of each horse with a two sentence blurb about them if
that’s something that helps you out. This year, I’m finding myself more focused
on the plusses and minuses of major players, and of those who are just on the
outside looking in. I’ll probably get more focused on the also-ran’s as the
summer unfolds, but I think this one has shaped up to be pretty chalky, so I
won’t be taking many flyers.
In my humble opinion, and for months now, the conversation
has begun, if not ended with Orb (16). The Shug McGuaghey trained colt is the
morning line favorite, my favorite, and as sure to hit the board as any Derby
morning line favorite in recent memory. Drawing well to the outside should suit
him just fine, and with original rider Joel Rosario back in the irons, I trust
his trip will be managed expertly.
The bottom line is (to quote Jon White); Orb just has zero
strikes against him. He has run in and won top notch graded stakes his last two
out. He is always poised in either 1st or 2nd at the 1/8
pole, and he never loses position past the 1/8 pole. He’s finished impressively
at 1 1/8 mi., proving a solid foundation for the distance. He was raced as a
two-year old and comes in with seven career starts under his belt, posting
Beyer speed figures of 102 and 97 his last two out. No strikes against a horse
in a field where just about all you can do is look for strikes if you plan to
do any wagering. But there’s one more thing. On paper, there’s another horse
that fits that same bill. It’s not your 4-1 second choice, and not your 5-1
third choice. At 10-1, he’s what the odds-makers see as Todd Pletcher’s 2nd
best entry. Ladies and gentleman, I give you Revolutionary (3) and Calvin Borel
… in the three hole … just off of the rail. You’ve heard this tune before, no?
The second choice from the morning line comes to you in the
form of Pletcher’s undefeated Verrazano (14). He is ostensibly a co-favorite
here, but there is one very large, looming question. Can he become the second
horse ever to win the Derby without having raced as a two-year-old? This isn’t
a small sample size (138), so I lend this fact a substantial bit of credibility.
Can he produce a Bodemeister or Curlin-esque effort and pick up a major award?
Of course. Can he become only the second horse in 139 years, and the first in
over 100 to win the race outright? Unlikely. He’ll be tough to keep off of your
ticket altogether, but for the win, I have to side with history on this one
until I’m given a reason not to.
When you get past those three there is a formidable second
tier of contenders, any one of which could step up and make a statement. Java’s
War (19), Goldencents (8), Itsmyluckyday (12), and Mylute (6) with Rosie Napravnik
aboard, are the best of the rest. I will be including each in all of my
exotics, and will definitely be wishing better things for Rosie than I will for
Rick Pitino (Goldencents part-owner). Overanalyze (9) and Vyjack (20) are a
tick below this group, and I will look to better spots for each of them later
in the summer.
The wise guy pick this year seems to be Normandy Invasion
(5). He’s expected to draw quite a bit of late money, so if you feel the need to
touch your finger to your nose and give someone the knowing nod before putting
him on your ticket, then more power to you. Some of the same folks that liked Animal
Kingdom are on board, and there’s still plenty of room at 12-1. And while he
may hit the board, I won’t be following suit. He’s just a horse with more
knocks on his resume than I think he’ll be able to overcome. Like I said
earlier, I need a horse that has more races under his belt than I can count on
one hand, a horse who has shown a 1-2 presence at the 1/8 poll in the two races
leading up to the Derby, and ideally for those races to be prominent graded
stakes wins. And though the Beyer speed figures are impressive, Normandy
Invasion misses the mark on each of the other three accounts. If you’re a
non-winner of two lifetime starts, I’m sorry, but I’m going to make you beat
me.
White also noted a group of four that may otherwise be
knocking on the door, were it not for one major shortcoming. When you look at
things from a straight speed figure perspective, Black Onyx (1), Charming
Kitten (15), Lines of Battle (11), and Palace Malice (10) don’t pass the litmus
test. None of the four has surpassed a Beyer figure of 93. Sometimes you don’t
have to look too far past a statistic like that to feel confident that a horse
is outclassed in a given field. Plain and simple, if that’s where you’ve shown
that you top out, you’re not going to be able to hang with the top flight of
this field.
That leaves Oxbow (2), Golden Soul (4), Giant Finish (7),
Falling Sky (13), Will Take Charge (17), and Frac Daddy (18), to sit back and
enjoy the spa treatment all weekend. Having said that, one of them will
undoubtedly jump up and kill one of my bigger tickets, but what are you gonna
do? This is a year where I'm not looking to beat a favorite, it's a year where I'm going to make the field beat me. It just sets up that way, and I can't find any other way around it.
One more thing about Goldencents though. Jockey Kevin Krigger will attempt to duplicate Mario Gutierrez's feat from last year in becoming the 3rd jockey in the past nine years to win the Derby in his first attempt. More notably however, he will be attempting to become the first African-American jockey to win the Derby since 1902. So while I will have to bite my Jayhawk lip if Goldencents prevails and I'm forced to watch Rick Pitino celebrate in the winner's circle; the bite will be brief and immediately followed by an immense feeling of admiration for Krigger. You never know which storyline will carry us to the Preakness, but I would not be disappointed if Kevin Krigger was a big part of it.
Good Luck.
No comments:
Post a Comment